Math Problem Statement

The professor of an introductory calculus class has stated that, historically, the distribution of final exam grades in the course resembles a normal distribution with a mean final exam mark of μ = 60% and a standard deviation of σ = 9%. (a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen final exam mark in this course will be at least 72%? (b) In order to pass this course, a student must have a final exam mark of at least 50%. What proportion of students will not pass the final exam? (c) The top 3% of students writing the final exam will receive a letter grade of at least A in the course. To two decimal places, find the minimum final exam mark needed to earn a letter grade of at least A in the course. (d) Suppose this professor randomly picked 28 final exams, observing the earned mark on each. What is the probability that 4 of these exams will have a grade of less than 50%?

Solution

Let's work through each question step-by-step.

The distribution of final exam marks is given to be normally distributed with:

  • Mean (μ\mu) = 60%
  • Standard deviation (σ\sigma) = 9%

Part (a)

Question: What is the probability that a randomly chosen final exam mark will be at least 72%?

Solution:

  1. Convert the score of 72% to a Z-score using the formula: Z=XμσZ = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} where X=72X = 72, μ=60\mu = 60, and σ=9\sigma = 9.

    Z=72609=129=1.3333Z = \frac{72 - 60}{9} = \frac{12}{9} = 1.3333

  2. Look up the Z-score of 1.3333 in a standard normal table, or use a calculator to find the area to the left of this Z-score.

    This area is approximately 0.9082.

  3. Since we want the probability of scoring at least 72%, we need the area to the right: P(X72)=10.9082=0.0918P(X \geq 72) = 1 - 0.9082 = 0.0918

  4. So, the answer to part (a) is: 0.0918\boxed{0.0918}


Part (b)

Question: What proportion of students will not pass the final exam if the passing mark is 50%?

Solution:

  1. Calculate the Z-score for 50%: Z=50609=109=1.1111Z = \frac{50 - 60}{9} = \frac{-10}{9} = -1.1111

  2. Look up the Z-score of -1.1111 in the standard normal table, or use a calculator. The area to the left of -1.1111 is approximately 0.1335.

  3. Since we want the proportion of students not passing (scoring below 50%), this is directly given by this area.

  4. So, the answer to part (b) is: 0.1335\boxed{0.1335}


Part (c)

Question: Find the minimum final exam mark needed to be in the top 3% of students.

Solution:

  1. For the top 3%, we need the Z-score that corresponds to the 97th percentile (since the top 3% is above 97%).

  2. The Z-score corresponding to 0.97 in a standard normal distribution is approximately 1.8808.

  3. Convert this Z-score back to the original score using the formula: X=Zσ+μX = Z \cdot \sigma + \mu X=1.88089+60=16.9272+60=76.9272X = 1.8808 \cdot 9 + 60 = 16.9272 + 60 = 76.9272

  4. Rounding to two decimal places, the minimum mark needed is: 76.93%\boxed{76.93\%}


Part (d)

Question: If the professor randomly picked 28 exams, what is the probability that 4 of these exams will have a grade of less than 50%?

Solution:

  1. From part (b), we know the probability of scoring less than 50% is p=0.1335p = 0.1335.

  2. This situation follows a binomial distribution with parameters n=28n = 28 and p=0.1335p = 0.1335. We want the probability that exactly 4 exams score below 50%.

  3. The probability of exactly k=4k = 4 exams scoring below 50% is given by the binomial formula: P(X=4)=(284)p4(1p)284P(X = 4) = \binom{28}{4} p^4 (1 - p)^{28 - 4} =(284)(0.1335)4(10.1335)24= \binom{28}{4} (0.1335)^4 (1 - 0.1335)^{24}

  4. Calculate the binomial coefficient (284)=28!4!(284)!=20475\binom{28}{4} = \frac{28!}{4!(28-4)!} = 20475.

  5. Substitute values into the formula and solve: P(X=4)20475×(0.1335)4×(0.8665)24P(X = 4) \approx 20475 \times (0.1335)^4 \times (0.8665)^{24}

  6. After calculation, this yields approximately: 0.2061\boxed{0.2061}


Do you want more details on any part? Here are five related questions to consider:

  1. How would you find the probability of scoring below a certain percentage, such as 40%?
  2. If the passing mark increased to 55%, how would the answer to part (b) change?
  3. What would the Z-score be for a mark of 65%?
  4. If the standard deviation increased to 12%, how would it affect the answer to part (c)?
  5. How does the binomial distribution used in part (d) compare to a Poisson distribution?

Tip: In normally distributed data, around 68% of data falls within one standard deviation from the mean, about 95% within two, and 99.7% within three. This is useful for quick approximations.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Binomial Distribution
Z-scores

Formulas

Z-score formula: Z = (X - μ) / σ
Binomial probability formula: P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)

Theorems

Empirical Rule
Normal Distribution Properties
Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College