Can OpenAI's o1 solve complex medical problems?

Dev and Doc: AI for Healthcare
20 Sept 202439:45

TLDRThe podcast discusses OpenAI's new GPT-3.5 models, focusing on their ability to solve complex medical problems. The hosts explore the models' reasoning capabilities, comparing them to previous versions and discussing their potential in healthcare. They test the models with medical scenarios and find them impressive, noting occasional inaccuracies but overall a significant step up. The conversation also touches on the models' transparency, training data, and their performance in reasoning benchmarks.

Takeaways

  • 🤖 OpenAI's new model, GPT-3.5 (referred to as 'o1'), demonstrates improved reasoning capabilities over previous models, making it more adept at handling complex tasks like medical diagnosis.
  • 🧠 The model has a 'thinking phase' where it processes information before providing an answer, which is a significant step up from previous models that did not exhibit this behavior.
  • 🔍 GPT-3.5 shows a more experimental approach to learning, allowing it to try multiple solutions and learn from mistakes, as opposed to a purely theoretical approach.
  • 🩺 In medical problem-solving, the model correctly identified common diagnoses and demonstrated an understanding of medical history and risk factors, showcasing its potential in healthcare applications.
  • 💡 The model's ability to perform 'Chain of Thought' reasoning was highlighted, where it explains the steps it takes to arrive at an answer, similar to how humans think through problems.
  • 📉 There is still room for improvement, as the model did not perform as well on spatial reasoning tasks like the Arc challenge, indicating it is not yet a general problem solver.
  • 📚 OpenAI has become less transparent about their model training, not publishing detailed papers on the algorithms or data used, which contrasts with other companies like Meta.
  • 🔑 The model's accuracy can be significantly improved by allowing it to 'think' longer, which corresponds to increasing the computational resources and time allocated to problem-solving.
  • 💊 In a test scenario involving opioid dose conversion, the model provided a close but slightly incorrect answer, underscoring the need for accurate data sources and potential risks in medical applications.
  • 🔄 There were inconsistencies in the model's responses to the same question in different runs, suggesting variability in its output that may require further refinement.

Q & A

  • What is the main topic discussed in the transcript?

    -The main topic discussed in the transcript is the capabilities and limitations of OpenAI's GPT-3.5 (referred to as 'o1' in the transcript) in solving complex medical problems.

  • What does 'o1' stand for in the context of the transcript?

    -In the context of the transcript, 'o1' refers to OpenAI's GPT-3.5, a new version of their language model that is being discussed for its ability to solve complex problems.

  • How does the GPT-3.5 model approach complex medical diagnosis?

    -The GPT-3.5 model approaches complex medical diagnosis by recursively chaining prompts and thinking through various possibilities, considering patient history, symptoms, and other relevant medical information.

  • What is the significance of the 'thinking phase' mentioned in the transcript?

    -The 'thinking phase' refers to the model's ability to simulate a thought process before providing an answer. It signifies a step up from previous models, where the model appears to consider multiple possibilities before settling on a response.

  • What is the 'Chain of Thought' mentioned in the transcript and how does it relate to problem-solving?

    -The 'Chain of Thought' is a method where the model explains each step it takes to arrive at an answer, similar to showing one's work in mathematics. It helps in understanding the reasoning process behind the model's responses.

  • How does the GPT-3.5 model handle ambiguous medical cases?

    -The GPT-3.5 model handles ambiguous medical cases by considering various symptoms and medical histories, and it uses its trained algorithms to suggest diagnoses based on the information provided.

  • What is the 'Arc challenge' mentioned in the transcript and why is it significant?

    -The 'Arc challenge' is a test designed to measure an AI's ability to understand and apply a transformation based on given examples. It is significant because it tests the AI's capability for visual and spatial reasoning, which is a challenge for text-based models like GPT-3.5.

  • What are the limitations of the GPT-3.5 model as discussed in the transcript?

    -The transcript discusses limitations such as the model's inability to handle certain visual and spatial reasoning tasks, occasional inconsistencies in responses, and the potential for incorrect inferences in medical coding scenarios.

  • How does the GPT-3.5 model perform on medical reasoning benchmarks according to the transcript?

    -The GPT-3.5 model has shown significant improvement on medical reasoning benchmarks, outperforming previous models, but still has room for improvement, particularly in tasks requiring complex spatial reasoning.

  • What are the potential applications of the GPT-3.5 model in healthcare as discussed in the transcript?

    -The potential applications of the GPT-3.5 model in healthcare include assisting with medical diagnosis, suggesting treatment plans, and aiding in clinical coding, although it requires further refinement and validation.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 AI's Enhanced Learning and Experimental Training

The paragraph discusses the advancements in AI models, particularly in the medical diagnosis field. It highlights how the AI did not fall into traps set by the user, indicating a more sophisticated learning process during training. The AI's ability to recursively chain thoughts and learn from multiple attempts is emphasized, showcasing a shift from theoretical to more experimental learning. The discussion also touches on the rarity of vasculitis as a diagnosis, suggesting the AI's knowledge base is extensive. The AI's improved performance is attributed to its ability to think recursively and learn from mistakes, a significant step up from previous models.

05:02

🧠 The Integration of Reasoning in AI Models

This section delves into the new features of AI models, specifically the integration of reasoning or 'chain of thought'. The AI now has a 'thinking phase' before answering, which was lacking in previous models. The concept of 'chain of thought' is explained, where the AI explains its reasoning process step by step. The paragraph also discusses the new models' ability to explore multiple solutions, similar to a Monte Carlo tree search, and how this approach has led to significant improvements in performance on reasoning benchmarks. The hosts express their desire for more transparency in AI development, comparing the current situation to Meta's open approach.

10:03

📈 AI's Performance in Complex Reasoning Tasks

The hosts discuss the AI's performance in complex reasoning tasks, highlighting its ability to provide detailed explanations for its answers. They note that while the AI performs similarly to other models on simpler questions, it excels in tasks requiring complex reasoning. The paragraph includes a comparison of the AI's performance on a math competition question, showing a significant improvement over previous models. The discussion also touches on the AI's ability to 'think more', which correlates with higher accuracy, suggesting that allowing the AI to run longer leads to better performance.

15:03

🧩 The Challenge of the ARC Test for AI

The paragraph focuses on the ARC (AI Research Content) challenge, a test that has proven difficult for AI models. The hosts explain the nature of the challenge, which involves recognizing patterns and transformations in grid-based puzzles. They note that while humans generally perform well on this task, AI models, including the latest ones, struggle to achieve human-level performance. The discussion includes a comparison of different models' performances, with the AI in question scoring significantly below human capabilities, indicating room for improvement.

20:03

🩺 AI's Medical Diagnosis Capabilities

This section discusses the AI's ability to handle medical diagnosis scenarios. The hosts present a case of a 35-year-old woman with abdominal distension, amenorrhea, and nausea, and note that the AI correctly identifies pregnancy as the most likely diagnosis. They compare this to earlier AI models that often defaulted to more complex, less likely diagnoses. The paragraph also includes a discussion on the AI's performance in coding medical scenarios, where it shows a good understanding of medical history and can correctly identify relevant codes, although it sometimes infers too much from the information provided.

25:05

💊 AI's Handling of Medical Scenarios and Drug Dosage Conversions

The hosts present a complex medical scenario involving a patient with hematuria and a purpuric rash, along with a history of Crohn's disease. They note that the AI correctly identifies vasculitis as a potential diagnosis, which previous models often missed. Another scenario involves converting opioid doses, where the AI provides a detailed explanation and calculation for converting from transdermal buprenorphine to oral oxycodone. Although the AI makes a minor error in the conversion rate, its overall performance is impressive, showing a significant improvement over previous models.

30:06

🔍 AI's Inconsistency in Responses and Future Improvements

The final paragraph discusses the AI's occasional inconsistency in providing answers, where the same question can yield different responses in different runs. The hosts suggest that this could be improved by using a maintained medical knowledge base instead of relying on potentially imperfect internet data. They also express optimism about the potential for future improvements, especially with fine-tuning and context-specific prompting. The paragraph concludes with a note on the importance of accurate medical coding for hospital billing, emphasizing the need for precision in AI's medical applications.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡OpenAI

OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research laboratory known for developing AI models like GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer). In the context of the video, OpenAI is discussed as the creator of the AI models that are being tested for their ability to solve complex medical problems. The video mentions the new model 'o1' which is a part of OpenAI's suite of AI tools.

💡o1 model

The 'o1 model' refers to a specific version of OpenAI's AI model that is being discussed in the video. It is described as having advanced capabilities in reasoning and problem-solving, particularly in the medical field. The video's hosts are impressed with its ability to handle complex medical diagnoses, suggesting a significant upgrade from previous models.

💡Reasoning

In the video, 'reasoning' is a key feature of the o1 model that allows it to think through problems step-by-step, similar to human thought processes. The hosts discuss how this feature enables the model to provide not just answers, but also a logical chain of thought leading to those answers, which is crucial for complex tasks like medical diagnosis.

💡Chain of Thought

The 'Chain of Thought' is a concept in AI where the model explains its thought process in a step-by-step manner. The video highlights this as a significant advancement in AI, where the model doesn't just provide an answer but also shows how it arrived at that answer, which is particularly important in high-stakes fields like healthcare.

💡Medical Diagnosis

Throughout the video, 'medical diagnosis' is used as a test case for the capabilities of the o1 model. The hosts present various medical scenarios to see if the AI can accurately diagnose conditions, which showcases the model's ability to handle complex reasoning and data interpretation.

💡Vasculitis

Vasculitis is a rare medical condition mentioned in the video as an example of a correct diagnosis provided by the o1 model. It is highlighted as a condition that the AI correctly identified from a set of symptoms, demonstrating its potential for accurate medical reasoning.

💡ICD-10 Code

The 'ICD-10 Code' refers to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, which is the standard diagnostic tool for epidemiology, health management, and clinical purposes. In the video, the AI's ability to correctly assign ICD-10 codes to medical scenarios is discussed as a measure of its proficiency in medical coding.

💡Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement Learning is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to make decisions by taking actions in an environment to maximize some notion of cumulative reward. The video suggests that the o1 model may have been trained using reinforcement learning, allowing it to learn from its mistakes and improve over time.

💡Transdermal Buprenorphine

Transdermal Buprenorphine is a medication mentioned in the video in the context of opioid conversion. The AI's ability to correctly calculate the equivalent dose of oral oxycodone from a transdermal buprenorphine patch is discussed, showcasing its potential in complex medical calculations.

💡Few-shot Prompting

Few-shot prompting is a technique in AI where the model is given a few examples to learn from before being asked to perform a task. The video mentions this as a potential method to improve the AI's performance in specific tasks, such as medical diagnosis or coding.

Highlights

OpenAI's GPT-3.5 (referred to as 'o1') has shown potential in solving complex medical problems.

The model has been trained in a more experimental way, learning from multiple attempts and corrections.

In cases of bloody urine and purplish rash, the model correctly suggests the rare diagnosis of vasculitis.

The model is described as having a 'thinking phase' before providing answers.

OpenAI has not been transparent about the training process of their latest models.

The model is text-based and lacks capabilities like vision or audio recognition.

A significant feature of the model is its integrated chain of thought, providing reasoning steps.

The model can be prompted to 'think more', which improves its accuracy on complex tasks.

The model has shown high accuracy on reasoning benchmarks, outperforming previous models.

Despite improvements, the model still struggles with certain tasks like the Arc challenge.

The model correctly identifies pregnancy in a case involving abdominal distension and nausea.

In a clinical coding scenario, the model makes a small but important error in inferring the cause of a stroke.

The model demonstrates the ability to consider family history in medical diagnosis.

The model shows promise in handling complex medical conversion tasks, like opioid dose conversions.

There are instances where the model provides different answers to the same question in different runs.

The model's performance on medical diagnosis is impressive, often getting the correct diagnosis frequently.

The model's ability to handle medical scenarios is tested against a set of questions created by medical professionals.

The model's performance is considered in the context of its potential use in a hospital setting, where coding accuracy is crucial.