Math Problem Statement

A manufacturer knows that their items have a normally distributed lifespan, with a mean of 6.8 years, and standard deviation of 1.4 years.

If you randomly purchase one item, what is the probability it will last longer than 5 years?

Round answer to three decimal places

Solution

To solve this problem, we need to find the probability that a randomly selected item will last longer than 5 years. This is a normal distribution problem, so we will use the Z-score formula:

Z=XμσZ = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma}

Where:

  • X=5X = 5 (the value we are interested in),
  • μ=6.8\mu = 6.8 (the mean lifespan),
  • σ=1.4\sigma = 1.4 (the standard deviation).

Step 1: Calculate the Z-score

Z=56.81.4=1.81.41.286Z = \frac{5 - 6.8}{1.4} = \frac{-1.8}{1.4} \approx -1.286

Step 2: Find the probability corresponding to the Z-score

We now need to look up the probability associated with a Z-score of -1.286 in a standard normal distribution table, or use a calculator. The Z-table gives the cumulative probability for values less than a given Z-score.

The cumulative probability for Z=1.286Z = -1.286 is approximately 0.0996. This means the probability that the item lasts less than 5 years is 0.0996.

Step 3: Find the probability of lasting longer than 5 years

To find the probability that the item lasts longer than 5 years, we subtract the cumulative probability from 1:

P(X>5)=10.0996=0.9004P(X > 5) = 1 - 0.0996 = 0.9004

Final Answer:

The probability that a randomly purchased item will last longer than 5 years is approximately 0.900\mathbf{0.900}.


Would you like more details or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions for deeper exploration:

  1. What is the probability that an item will last between 5 and 7 years?
  2. If the manufacturer guarantees items for 4 years, what percentage of items will last beyond the warranty?
  3. What lifespan corresponds to the 95th percentile?
  4. How does the probability change if the standard deviation increases to 2 years?
  5. What is the Z-score for an item lasting exactly 8 years?

Tip: For normally distributed data, the empirical rule states that approximately 68% of values fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Z-scores

Formulas

Z = (X - μ) / σ
P(X > 5) = 1 - P(Z ≤ -1.286)

Theorems

Standard Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12