Math Problem Statement

A manufacturer knows that their items have a normally distributed lifespan, with a mean of 6.2 years, and standard deviation of 2 years.

If you randomly purchase one item, what is the probability it will last longer than 8 years? Round answer to three decimal places.

Solution

To solve this problem, we can use the properties of the normal distribution. The lifespan of the items is normally distributed with a mean (μ\mu) of 6.2 years and a standard deviation (σ\sigma) of 2 years. We are asked to find the probability that a randomly chosen item will last longer than 8 years.

Steps:

  1. Standardize the value: We first convert the raw value (8 years) to a z-score using the formula: z=xμσz = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma} where:

    • x=8x = 8 (the value we are interested in),
    • μ=6.2\mu = 6.2 (mean lifespan),
    • σ=2\sigma = 2 (standard deviation).

    Substituting the values: z=86.22=1.82=0.9z = \frac{8 - 6.2}{2} = \frac{1.8}{2} = 0.9

  2. Find the probability: We now need to find the probability that the lifespan is greater than 8 years, which corresponds to finding the probability that the z-score is greater than 0.9.

    Using standard normal distribution tables or a calculator:

    • The cumulative probability for z=0.9z = 0.9 is approximately 0.8159.
    • Since we want the probability of the item lasting longer than 8 years, we need to subtract this from 1: P(X>8)=1P(Z0.9)=10.8159=0.1841P(X > 8) = 1 - P(Z \leq 0.9) = 1 - 0.8159 = 0.1841

Final Answer:

The probability that a randomly selected item will last longer than 8 years is approximately 0.184 (rounded to three decimal places).


Would you like more details on any part of the solution, or do you have any questions?

Here are five related questions to extend your understanding:

  1. What is the probability that the item will last less than 5 years?
  2. What is the probability that an item will last between 4 and 7 years?
  3. How long will an item last if you want the lifespan to be in the top 5%?
  4. What is the probability that an item will last between 6 and 9 years?
  5. How does the probability change if the standard deviation increases to 3 years?

Tip: The z-score allows you to compare data points from different normal distributions or the same distribution.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Normal Distribution
Z-scores

Formulas

Z = (X - μ) / σ
P(X > x) = 1 - P(Z ≤ z)

Theorems

Properties of the Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12