Math Problem Statement

The mean number of errors per page made by a member of the word processing pool for a large company is thought to be 2.72.7 with the number of errors distributed according to a Poisson distribution. If a page is​ examined, what is the probability that more than two errors will be​ observed? Question content area bottom Part 1 The probability that more than two errors will be observed is enter your response here. ​(Round to four decimal places as​ needed.)

Solution

To solve this problem, we will use the Poisson distribution formula, which is:

P(X=k)=λkeλk!P(X = k) = \frac{{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}}{k!}

Where:

  • λ\lambda is the average number of errors per page (which is 2.7 in this case),
  • kk is the number of errors,
  • ee is Euler's number (approximately 2.71828),
  • k!k! is the factorial of kk.

We are asked to find the probability that more than 2 errors are observed, i.e., P(X>2)P(X > 2). This is equal to:

P(X>2)=1P(X2)P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \leq 2)

So first, we need to calculate P(X2)P(X \leq 2), which is the sum of the probabilities for 0, 1, and 2 errors:

P(X2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)P(X \leq 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

Now, let's calculate each of these:

  1. P(X=0)=2.70e2.70!=e2.7P(X = 0) = \frac{{2.7^0 e^{-2.7}}}{0!} = e^{-2.7}
  2. P(X=1)=2.71e2.71!=2.7e2.7P(X = 1) = \frac{{2.7^1 e^{-2.7}}}{1!} = 2.7 e^{-2.7}
  3. P(X=2)=2.72e2.72!=2.722e2.7P(X = 2) = \frac{{2.7^2 e^{-2.7}}}{2!} = \frac{{2.7^2}}{2} e^{-2.7}

Now, we can sum these probabilities and subtract them from 1 to find P(X>2)P(X > 2).

Let me calculate that for you.The probability that more than two errors will be observed on a page is approximately 0.5064 (rounded to four decimal places).

Would you like further details or have any questions about this? Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How would the probability change if the mean number of errors was different?
  2. What is the probability of observing exactly three errors on a page?
  3. How do we compute cumulative probabilities for other values of kk in a Poisson distribution?
  4. Can the Poisson distribution be used to model other types of events?
  5. How does the Poisson distribution compare to the binomial distribution?

Tip: When solving Poisson distribution problems, it helps to remember that it models rare events over a fixed interval or space, like errors per page or arrivals per hour.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X ≤ 2)

Theorems

Poisson distribution theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12