Math Problem Statement
(Related to Checkpoint 7.2) (Calculating the geometric and arithmetic average rate of return)**** Marsh Inc. had the following end-of-year stock prices over the last five years and paid no cash dividends:
Time
Marsh
1
$88
2
1212
3
1616
4
77
5
88
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a. Calculate the annual rate of return for each year from the above information.
b. What is the arithmetic average rate of return earned by investing in Marsh's stock over this period?
c. What is the geometric average rate of return earned by investing in Marsh's stock over this period?
d. Considering the beginning and ending stock prices for the five-year period are the same, which type of average rate of return (the arithmetic or geometric) better describes the average annual rate of return earned over the period?
Question content area bottom
Part 1
a. The annual rate of return at the end of year 2 is
enter your response here%.
**** (Round to two decimal places.)
Solution
To calculate the required rates of return, we will approach the problem step by step.
Part (a): Annual Rate of Return
The formula for the annual rate of return for year is given by: where:
- is the stock price at the end of year ,
- is the stock price at the end of the previous year ,
- is the annual rate of return.
The stock prices for Marsh Inc. over the five years are:
- Year 1:
- Year 2:
- Year 3:
- Year 4:
- Year 5:
Now, we calculate the annual return for each year:
-
From Year 1 to Year 2:
-
From Year 2 to Year 3:
-
From Year 3 to Year 4:
-
From Year 4 to Year 5:
The annual rates of return are:
- Year 2: 1277.27%
- Year 3: 33.33%
- Year 4: -95.23%
- Year 5: 14.29%
Part (b): Arithmetic Average Rate of Return
The arithmetic average rate of return is simply the sum of the annual returns divided by the number of years:
Part (c): Geometric Average Rate of Return
The geometric average rate of return is calculated using the following formula:
where is in decimal form, and is the number of years.
First, we convert the rates of return to decimal form:
- Year 2: 12.7727
- Year 3: 0.3333
- Year 4: -0.9523
- Year 5: 0.1429
Now, applying the formula:
Part (d): Comparing the Arithmetic and Geometric Averages
Since the beginning and ending stock prices are the same, the geometric average rate of return (0.015%) provides a better description of the average annual return over the period. This is because it takes into account the compounding effect and reflects the fact that the stock ended at the same price it started. The arithmetic average, being much higher, does not accurately represent the overall performance due to the extreme fluctuations.
Would you like further clarifications on any part of the solution? Here are some related questions for further exploration:
- How does the geometric average handle negative returns differently than the arithmetic average?
- What would the outcome be if dividends were paid each year?
- How would the geometric average change if the stock price at the end of Year 5 was higher?
- How do extreme price movements affect the arithmetic average?
- Can the geometric average ever exceed the arithmetic average?
Tip: The geometric average is more appropriate for multi-period returns as it accurately reflects compound growth over time.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Rates of Return
Arithmetic Average
Geometric Average
Percentage Change
Formulas
Annual Rate of Return: Rt = ((Pt - Pt-1) / Pt-1) * 100
Arithmetic Average Rate of Return: (Sum of Annual Returns) / Number of Years
Geometric Average Rate of Return: ((Product of (1 + Rt))^(1/n)) - 1
Theorems
Arithmetic Mean Theorem
Geometric Mean Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12
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