Math Problem Statement

​(Related to Checkpoint​ 7.2)​ (Calculating the geometric and arithmetic average rate of​ return)**** Marsh Inc. had the following​ end-of-year stock prices over the last five years and paid no cash​ dividends:

Time

Marsh

1

​$88

2

1212

3

1616

4

77

5

88

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a. Calculate the annual rate of return for each year from the above information.

b. What is the arithmetic average rate of return earned by investing in​ Marsh's stock over this​ period?

c. What is the geometric average rate of return earned by investing in​ Marsh's stock over this​ period?

d. Considering the beginning and ending stock prices for the​ five-year period are the​ same, which type of average rate of return​ (the arithmetic or​ geometric) better describes the average annual rate of return earned over the​ period?

Question content area bottom

Part 1

a. The annual rate of return at the end of year 2 is

enter your response here​%.

**** ​(Round to two decimal​ places.)

Solution

To calculate the required rates of return, we will approach the problem step by step.

Part (a): Annual Rate of Return

The formula for the annual rate of return for year tt is given by: Rt=PtPt1Pt1×100R_t = \frac{P_t - P_{t-1}}{P_{t-1}} \times 100 where:

  • PtP_t is the stock price at the end of year tt,
  • Pt1P_{t-1} is the stock price at the end of the previous year t1t-1,
  • RtR_t is the annual rate of return.

The stock prices for Marsh Inc. over the five years are:

  • Year 1: 8888
  • Year 2: 12121212
  • Year 3: 16161616
  • Year 4: 7777
  • Year 5: 8888

Now, we calculate the annual return for each year:

  1. From Year 1 to Year 2: R2=12128888×100=112488×100=1277.27%R_2 = \frac{1212 - 88}{88} \times 100 = \frac{1124}{88} \times 100 = 1277.27\%

  2. From Year 2 to Year 3: R3=161612121212×100=4041212×100=33.33%R_3 = \frac{1616 - 1212}{1212} \times 100 = \frac{404}{1212} \times 100 = 33.33\%

  3. From Year 3 to Year 4: R4=7716161616×100=15391616×100=95.23%R_4 = \frac{77 - 1616}{1616} \times 100 = \frac{-1539}{1616} \times 100 = -95.23\%

  4. From Year 4 to Year 5: R5=887777×100=1177×100=14.29%R_5 = \frac{88 - 77}{77} \times 100 = \frac{11}{77} \times 100 = 14.29\%

The annual rates of return are:

  • Year 2: 1277.27%
  • Year 3: 33.33%
  • Year 4: -95.23%
  • Year 5: 14.29%

Part (b): Arithmetic Average Rate of Return

The arithmetic average rate of return is simply the sum of the annual returns divided by the number of years:

Arithmetic Average=1277.27%+33.33%+(95.23%)+14.29%4\text{Arithmetic Average} = \frac{1277.27\% + 33.33\% + (-95.23\%) + 14.29\%}{4} =1229.66%4=307.42%= \frac{1229.66\%}{4} = 307.42\%

Part (c): Geometric Average Rate of Return

The geometric average rate of return is calculated using the following formula:

Geometric Average=(t=1n(1+Rt))1n1\text{Geometric Average} = \left( \prod_{t=1}^{n} (1 + R_t) \right)^{\frac{1}{n}} - 1 where RtR_t is in decimal form, and nn is the number of years.

First, we convert the rates of return to decimal form:

  • Year 2: 12.7727
  • Year 3: 0.3333
  • Year 4: -0.9523
  • Year 5: 0.1429

Now, applying the formula: Geometric Average=((1+12.7727)×(1+0.3333)×(10.9523)×(1+0.1429))141\text{Geometric Average} = \left( (1 + 12.7727) \times (1 + 0.3333) \times (1 - 0.9523) \times (1 + 0.1429) \right)^{\frac{1}{4}} - 1 =(13.7727×1.3333×0.0477×1.1429)141= \left( 13.7727 \times 1.3333 \times 0.0477 \times 1.1429 \right)^{\frac{1}{4}} - 1 =(1.0006)1410.00015 or 0.015%= \left( 1.0006 \right)^{\frac{1}{4}} - 1 \approx 0.00015 \text{ or } 0.015\%

Part (d): Comparing the Arithmetic and Geometric Averages

Since the beginning and ending stock prices are the same, the geometric average rate of return (0.015%) provides a better description of the average annual return over the period. This is because it takes into account the compounding effect and reflects the fact that the stock ended at the same price it started. The arithmetic average, being much higher, does not accurately represent the overall performance due to the extreme fluctuations.


Would you like further clarifications on any part of the solution? Here are some related questions for further exploration:

  1. How does the geometric average handle negative returns differently than the arithmetic average?
  2. What would the outcome be if dividends were paid each year?
  3. How would the geometric average change if the stock price at the end of Year 5 was higher?
  4. How do extreme price movements affect the arithmetic average?
  5. Can the geometric average ever exceed the arithmetic average?

Tip: The geometric average is more appropriate for multi-period returns as it accurately reflects compound growth over time.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Rates of Return
Arithmetic Average
Geometric Average
Percentage Change

Formulas

Annual Rate of Return: Rt = ((Pt - Pt-1) / Pt-1) * 100
Arithmetic Average Rate of Return: (Sum of Annual Returns) / Number of Years
Geometric Average Rate of Return: ((Product of (1 + Rt))^(1/n)) - 1

Theorems

Arithmetic Mean Theorem
Geometric Mean Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12