Math Problem Statement

. Imagine you're conducting a survey to determine the probability of a person buying a new iPhone after viewing an advertisement for the updated iPhone. Based on past data, you know that historically 30% of people who view this advertisement end up buying a new iPhone. You're interested in the probability that out of 10 people who view the advertisement, more than 7 will buy a new iPhone

Solution

To determine the probability that more than 7 out of 10 people will buy a new iPhone after viewing an advertisement, given that historically 30% of people who see the ad make a purchase, we can model this situation using a binomial distribution.

Problem Setup:

  • n = 10 (the number of people who view the ad),
  • p = 0.30 (the probability that a single person buys the iPhone after viewing the ad),
  • We need to find the probability that more than 7 people (i.e., 8, 9, or 10 people) buy the iPhone.

Binomial Probability Formula:

For a binomial distribution, the probability of getting exactly kk successes (people buying the iPhone) is given by:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot (1 - p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, which is calculated as n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!},
  • pp is the probability of success (in this case, 0.30),
  • nn is the number of trials (10 people),
  • kk is the number of successes we are interested in.

Steps to Solve:

We need to find P(X>7)P(X > 7), which means:

P(X>7)=P(X=8)+P(X=9)+P(X=10)P(X > 7) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)

Let’s calculate each term individually. I'll do the computation to sum up these probabilities.The probability that more than 7 out of 10 people will buy a new iPhone after viewing the advertisement is approximately 0.00159, or about 0.16%.

Would you like further details or clarifications?

Here are 5 related questions to expand on this:

  1. How does the probability change if 15 people view the advertisement instead of 10?
  2. What is the probability that exactly 5 people will buy the iPhone?
  3. Can you explain the concept of a binomial distribution in more detail?
  4. How would the probability change if the historical data showed 50% of viewers bought the iPhone?
  5. How does the binomial distribution relate to the normal distribution?

Tip: In a binomial distribution, as the number of trials increases, the distribution starts to resemble a normal distribution, especially when npnp and n(1p)n(1-p) are both large.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Statistics

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
P(X > 7) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College/University level (Probability and Statistics)