Math Problem Statement

The owner of a small deli is trying to decide whether to discontinue selling magazines. He suspects that only 7.9% of his customers buy a magazine and he thinks that he might be able to use the display space to sell something more profitable. Before making a final decision, he decides that for one day he will keep track of the number of customers that buy a magazine. Assuming his suspicion that 7.9% of his customers buy a magazine is correct, what is the probability that exactly 3 out of the first 10 customers buy a magazine?

Solution

This problem involves a binomial distribution, as it deals with repeated independent trials (each customer deciding to buy or not buy a magazine) with two possible outcomes: success (buying a magazine) or failure (not buying a magazine).

In a binomial distribution, the probability of exactly kk successes in nn independent trials is given by the formula:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • P(X=k)P(X = k) is the probability of getting exactly kk successes,
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, which counts the number of ways to choose kk successes from nn trials,
  • pp is the probability of success on each trial,
  • nn is the total number of trials, and
  • kk is the number of successes.

In this case:

  • n=10n = 10 (since he is observing the first 10 customers),
  • k=3k = 3 (the problem asks for the probability that exactly 3 customers buy a magazine),
  • p=0.079p = 0.079 (since 7.9% of customers buy a magazine).

We can now calculate the probability.

Step 1: Calculate the binomial coefficient (103)\binom{10}{3}:

(103)=10!3!(103)!=10×9×83×2×1=120\binom{10}{3} = \frac{10!}{3!(10-3)!} = \frac{10 \times 9 \times 8}{3 \times 2 \times 1} = 120

Step 2: Apply the binomial formula:

P(X=3)=(103)(0.079)3(10.079)103P(X = 3) = \binom{10}{3} (0.079)^3 (1 - 0.079)^{10-3} P(X=3)=120×(0.079)3×(0.921)7P(X = 3) = 120 \times (0.079)^3 \times (0.921)^7

Let me calculate this.The probability that exactly 3 out of the first 10 customers will buy a magazine is approximately 0.03330.0333, or about 3.33%.

Would you like to see more details or have any questions about this process?

Here are 5 related questions to further explore the topic:

  1. What is the probability that no customers buy a magazine?
  2. How would the probability change if the deli owner suspects that 10% of customers buy a magazine?
  3. What is the probability that fewer than 2 customers buy a magazine?
  4. How can we calculate the expected number of customers who buy a magazine in this scenario?
  5. What is the standard deviation of the number of customers buying a magazine?

Tip: The sum of probabilities for all possible outcomes (0 through 10 customers buying a magazine) must always equal 1 for a binomial distribution.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
(n choose k) = n! / (k!(n - k)!)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12