Math Problem Statement

Sven practices shooting and hits the target with a probability of 3/4. Over 60 independent trials, the variable C counts the number of times the target is hit. Justify that C follows a binomial distribution and calculate the probability that Sven hits the target at least 50 times, rounded to the nearest thousandth.

Solution

Let's solve this step by step.

Exercise 1:

Part 1: Justification for Binomial Distribution

The random variable CC, which counts the number of successful hits during the training session, follows a binomial distribution because:

  1. Each shot has only two possible outcomes: hitting the target (success) or missing (failure).
  2. The probability of success (hitting the target) is constant for each shot and is given as p=34p = \frac{3}{4}.
  3. The shots are independent, meaning the outcome of one shot does not influence the outcomes of others.
  4. The total number of trials is fixed, n=60n = 60.

Thus, CB(n,p)C \sim \mathcal{B}(n, p), where:

  • n=60n = 60 (number of trials),
  • p=34=0.75p = \frac{3}{4} = 0.75 (probability of success).

Part 2: Probability that C50C \geq 50

We want to calculate P(C50)P(C \geq 50). Using the binomial distribution formula or approximations: P(C50)=1P(C49).P(C \geq 50) = 1 - P(C \leq 49).

Steps:

  1. Using the binomial cumulative probability P(Ck)P(C \leq k): P(Ck)=i=0k(ni)pi(1p)ni.P(C \leq k) = \sum_{i=0}^{k} \binom{n}{i} p^i (1-p)^{n-i}. Direct computation is tedious, so we use an approximation.

  2. Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution: For large nn, the binomial distribution B(n,p)\mathcal{B}(n, p) can be approximated by a normal distribution: CN(μ,σ2),C \sim \mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2), where: μ=np=600.75=45,\mu = n \cdot p = 60 \cdot 0.75 = 45, σ=np(1p)=600.750.25=11.253.354.\sigma = \sqrt{n \cdot p \cdot (1-p)} = \sqrt{60 \cdot 0.75 \cdot 0.25} = \sqrt{11.25} \approx 3.354.

  3. Convert P(C50)P(C \geq 50) to the standard normal form: P(C50)P(Z50μσ),P(C \geq 50) \approx P\left(Z \geq \frac{50 - \mu}{\sigma}\right), where ZZ is the standard normal variable: Z50453.35453.3541.49.Z \geq \frac{50 - 45}{3.354} \approx \frac{5}{3.354} \approx 1.49.

  4. From standard normal tables, P(Z1.49)P(Z \geq 1.49): P(Z1.49)=1P(Z1.49)10.9319=0.0681.P(Z \geq 1.49) = 1 - P(Z \leq 1.49) \approx 1 - 0.9319 = 0.0681.

Thus, the probability P(C50)P(C \geq 50) is approximately 0.068, rounded to the nearest thousandth.


Summary of Results

  1. CB(60,0.75)C \sim \mathcal{B}(60, 0.75).
  2. P(C50)0.068P(C \geq 50) \approx 0.068.

Do you need further explanation or more steps elaborated? Here are five related questions for deeper understanding:

  1. How does the normal approximation simplify binomial calculations?
  2. What would happen to σ\sigma if the probability of success were 0.50.5 instead of 0.750.75?
  3. How can this method be applied to real-life problems involving probabilities?
  4. What are the limitations of using the normal approximation for small nn?
  5. How would the probability change if we calculated P(C=50)P(C = 50) instead of P(C50)P(C \geq 50)?

Tip: Always check the conditions for using approximations, especially when nn is small or pp is close to 0 or

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation

Formulas

Binomial Probability: P(C = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Normal Approximation: Z = (X - μ) / σ, where μ = n * p and σ = √(n * p * (1-p))

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem (used for Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution)

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12 (High School Probability and Statistics)