Math Problem Statement

Please solve

In a marketing survey, a random sample of 728 shoppers revealed that 622 remained loyal to their favorite supermarket during the past year. (a) Find a point estimate for the proportion of all shoppers who remain loyal to their favorite supermarket, rounded to four decimal places. (b) Find a 95% confidence interval for this proportion, including the explanation for the meaning of the interval. (c) How would you report the survey results, and what is the margin of error based on the 95% confidence interval?

Solution

Let's solve this step by step.


(a) Point Estimate

The point estimate for pp, the proportion of shoppers who remained loyal, is calculated as: p^=Number of loyal shoppersTotal number of shoppers=622728\hat{p} = \frac{\text{Number of loyal shoppers}}{\text{Total number of shoppers}} = \frac{622}{728}

p^=0.8544 (rounded to four decimal places).\hat{p} = 0.8544 \text{ (rounded to four decimal places)}.


(b) 95% Confidence Interval for pp

The formula for the confidence interval is: p^±Zp^(1p^)n\hat{p} \pm Z \cdot \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} Where:

  • p^=0.8544\hat{p} = 0.8544,
  • n=728n = 728,
  • ZZ (for 95% confidence) =1.96= 1.96.

First, calculate the standard error (SESE): SE=p^(1p^)n=0.8544(10.8544)728=0.85440.1456728=0.1243728=0.0132 (rounded to four decimal places).SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.8544(1-0.8544)}{728}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.8544 \cdot 0.1456}{728}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.1243}{728}} = 0.0132 \text{ (rounded to four decimal places)}.

Next, calculate the margin of error (MEME): ME=ZSE=1.960.0132=0.0259 (rounded to three decimal places).ME = Z \cdot SE = 1.96 \cdot 0.0132 = 0.0259 \text{ (rounded to three decimal places)}.

The confidence interval is: p^±ME=0.8544±0.0259.\hat{p} \pm ME = 0.8544 \pm 0.0259.

Lower limit: 0.85440.0259=0.8285.0.8544 - 0.0259 = 0.8285.

Upper limit: 0.8544+0.0259=0.8803.0.8544 + 0.0259 = 0.8803.

95% Confidence Interval: 0.829 to 0.880 (rounded to three decimal places).0.829 \text{ to } 0.880 \text{ (rounded to three decimal places)}.


Explanation of the Confidence Interval: The correct statement is:

We are 95% confident that the true proportion of loyal shoppers falls within this interval.


(c) How to Report the Survey Results

As a news writer, the best way to report the survey results is to:

Report p^\hat{p} along with the margin of error.

This gives readers both the estimate and an idea of its precision.


Margin of Error

From part (b), the margin of error is: 0.0259 (rounded to three decimal places).0.0259 \text{ (rounded to three decimal places)}.


Let me know if you need further clarification or additional steps explained!


5 Related Questions:

  1. What does the margin of error represent in a confidence interval?
  2. How is the ZZ-score determined for different confidence levels (e.g., 90%, 99%)?
  3. Why is the confidence interval wider for smaller sample sizes?
  4. What assumptions must hold for this confidence interval calculation to be valid?
  5. How would the interval change if the confidence level was increased to 99%?

Tip: Always verify the sample size is large enough (n30n \geq 30) to ensure the normal approximation applies for proportions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Proportion Estimation
Confidence Intervals

Formulas

Point Estimate: \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \)
Standard Error: \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \)
Margin of Error: \( ME = Z \cdot SE \)
Confidence Interval: \( \hat{p} \pm ME \)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

College/University (Introductory Statistics)