Math Problem Statement

Consumer Reports (January 2005) indicates that profit margins on extended warranties are much greater than on the purchase of most products. In this exercise we consider a major electronics retailer that wishes to increase the proportion of customers who buy extended warranties on digital cameras. Historically, 20 percent of digital camera customers have purchased the retailer’s extended warranty. To increase this percentage, the retailer has decided to offer a new warranty that is less expensive and more comprehensive. Suppose that three months after starting to offer the new warranty, a random sample of 535 customer sales invoices shows that 169 out of 535 digital camera customers purchased the new warranty. Find a 95 percent confidence interval for the proportion of all digital camera customers who have purchased the new warranty. Are we 95 percent confident that this proportion exceeds .20? (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Solution

To solve this problem, we need to construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all digital camera customers who purchased the new warranty. The steps involved are as follows:

Step 1: Define the sample proportion

The sample proportion p^\hat{p} is given by:

p^=xn\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}

Where:

  • x=169x = 169 (the number of customers who purchased the new warranty)
  • n=535n = 535 (the total number of customers in the sample)

p^=1695350.316\hat{p} = \frac{169}{535} \approx 0.316

Step 2: Find the standard error of the proportion

The standard error (SE) for the proportion is calculated using the formula:

SE=p^(1p^)nSE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1 - \hat{p})}{n}}

Substituting the values:

SE=0.316(10.316)535=0.316×0.6845350.020SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.316(1 - 0.316)}{535}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.316 \times 0.684}{535}} \approx 0.020

Step 3: Find the critical value for a 95% confidence interval

For a 95% confidence interval, the critical value (z-value) from the standard normal distribution is 1.96.

Step 4: Calculate the margin of error

The margin of error (ME) is given by:

ME=z×SE=1.96×0.0200.039ME = z \times SE = 1.96 \times 0.020 \approx 0.039

Step 5: Construct the confidence interval

The 95% confidence interval for the proportion is:

p^±ME=0.316±0.039\hat{p} \pm ME = 0.316 \pm 0.039

Thus, the confidence interval is:

(0.3160.039,0.316+0.039)=(0.277,0.355)(0.316 - 0.039, 0.316 + 0.039) = (0.277, 0.355)

Step 6: Interpret the result

We are 95% confident that the true proportion of all digital camera customers who have purchased the new warranty is between 0.277 and 0.355.

Step 7: Compare with 0.20

Since the lower bound of the confidence interval (0.277) is greater than 0.20, we are 95% confident that the proportion of customers who purchased the new warranty is greater than 0.20.

Conclusion:

Yes, we are 95% confident that the proportion of customers who purchased the new warranty exceeds 0.20.

Would you like any more details on the process or have any questions?


Here are 5 related questions you might consider:

  1. What is the formula for a confidence interval for proportions, and why is it used?
  2. How would the confidence interval change if we used a different confidence level (e.g., 90%)?
  3. What is the impact of sample size on the width of a confidence interval?
  4. How can we test whether the increase in warranty purchases is statistically significant?
  5. What assumptions do we make when constructing a confidence interval for proportions?

Tip: Increasing the sample size reduces the margin of error, which leads to a narrower confidence interval.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Confidence Intervals
Proportions

Formulas

Sample Proportion: p̂ = x / n
Standard Error: SE = √[p̂(1 - p̂) / n]
Margin of Error: ME = z * SE
Confidence Interval: p̂ ± ME

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation for Proportions

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12 or College Level