Math Problem Statement

You want to obtain a sample to estimate a population proportion. At this point in time, you have no reasonable preliminary estimation for the population proportion. You would like to be 90% confident that you estimate is within 2% of the true population proportion. How large of a sample size is required? Do not round mid-calculation.

n=

Solution

To determine the required sample size (nn) for estimating a population proportion with a given margin of error, confidence level, and no preliminary estimate for the proportion, we use the following formula:

n=Z2p(1p)E2n = \frac{{Z^2 \cdot p(1 - p)}}{{E^2}}

Where:

  • ZZ is the Z-score corresponding to the confidence level.
  • pp is the estimated population proportion (since there is no prior estimate, we use p=0.5p = 0.5, which maximizes the sample size).
  • EE is the margin of error.

Step 1: Identify the values

  • Confidence level = 90% → ZZ-score for 90% confidence is 1.645.
  • Margin of error EE = 2% or 0.02.
  • Since we have no preliminary estimate for the population proportion, we use p=0.5p = 0.5.

Step 2: Apply the formula

n=(1.645)20.5(10.5)(0.02)2n = \frac{{(1.645)^2 \cdot 0.5(1 - 0.5)}}{{(0.02)^2}}

n=(2.706025)(0.25)0.0004n = \frac{{(2.706025) \cdot (0.25)}}{{0.0004}}

n=0.676506250.0004n = \frac{{0.67650625}}{{0.0004}}

n=1691.265625n = 1691.265625

Step 3: Final Answer

Since the sample size must be a whole number, round up to the nearest whole number:

n=1692n = 1692

Therefore, you would need a sample size of 1,692.

Would you like any further explanation or more details? Here are some related questions:

  1. How does increasing the confidence level affect the sample size?
  2. What happens to the required sample size if we have a prior estimate for pp?
  3. How do we calculate the Z-score for different confidence levels?
  4. What impact does changing the margin of error have on sample size?
  5. How is this formula derived from the margin of error formula?

Tip: Always round the sample size up to ensure the margin of error stays within the desired range.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Confidence Intervals
Population Proportion Estimation
Sampling

Formulas

n = (Z^2 * p(1 - p)) / E^2

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Distribution in Sampling

Suitable Grade Level

College Level Statistics