Math Problem Statement

You want to obtain a sample to estimate a population proportion. At this point in time, you have no reasonable preliminary estimation for the population proportion. You would like to be 90% confident that you estimate is within 2% of the true population proportion. How large of a sample size is required?

Solution

To solve this problem, we can use the formula for estimating the sample size needed to estimate a population proportion when no preliminary estimate is available. The formula is:

n=(Z2×p(1p)E2)n = \left( \frac{Z^2 \times p(1-p)}{E^2} \right)

Where:

  • ZZ is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level.
  • pp is the estimated population proportion (since no estimate is given, we use p=0.5p = 0.5, which maximizes the sample size).
  • EE is the margin of error (in this case, 2% or 0.02).

For a 90% confidence level, the Z-score is approximately 1.645.

Now, we can plug in the values:

n=(1.6452×0.5(10.5)0.022)n = \left( \frac{1.645^2 \times 0.5(1-0.5)}{0.02^2} \right)

First, calculate each part:

1.6452=2.7060251.645^2 = 2.706025

0.5(10.5)=0.250.5(1 - 0.5) = 0.25

0.022=0.00040.02^2 = 0.0004

Now, plug them in:

n=(2.706025×0.250.0004)=(0.676506250.0004)=1691.27n = \left( \frac{2.706025 \times 0.25}{0.0004} \right) = \left( \frac{0.67650625}{0.0004} \right) = 1691.27

Therefore, the required sample size is 1692 (since sample size must be a whole number, we round up).

Let me know if you'd like further clarification! Would you like additional details or have any questions?

Here are five related questions:

  1. What if the confidence level was increased to 95%? How would the sample size change?
  2. How does the margin of error affect the sample size?
  3. What if we had a preliminary estimate of the population proportion? How would that change the formula?
  4. How does the Z-score change for different confidence levels?
  5. How do we calculate the Z-score for a given confidence level?

Tip: Always round up your sample size result, even if the decimal part is small. This ensures you have a sufficient sample.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Population Proportion Estimation
Confidence Intervals
Sample Size Determination

Formulas

n = (Z^2 * p(1 - p)) / E^2

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of Normal Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

College Level