Math Problem Statement
Solve this using python code. Separate each part.
Solution
To solve the problem, I will split it into three parts as shown in the image and write Python code accordingly.
Part 1: Load the dataset and create the stock_data
DataFrame.
We will read in the CSV file, ignoring all columns except bid_price_close
and time
.
pythonimport pandas as pd # Load the CSV file (assuming it's in the correct directory). file_path = '/mnt/data/your_file.csv' # Adjust with the correct file path name. stock_data = pd.read_csv(file_path) # Keep only 'bid_price_close' and 'time' columns. stock_data = stock_data[['time', 'bid_price_close']] # View the first few rows to verify the DataFrame stock_data.head()
Part 2: Calculate percent returns and scale them by 100.
We will compute the daily percent return using bid_price_close
and store them as a pandas Series
.
python# Calculate percent returns and scale by 100 one_day_returns = stock_data['bid_price_close'].pct_change() * 100 # Convert to pandas Series one_day_returns = pd.Series(one_day_returns, name='one_day_returns') # View the first few rows of the percent returns one_day_returns.head()
Part 3: Assign posterior hyperparameters and create an Inverse Gamma distribution.
For this part, I will use the scipy.stats.invgamma
distribution for your posterior.
pythonfrom scipy.stats import invgamma # Assign hyperparameters for the Inverse Gamma distribution posterior_a = 2.0 # Example value, replace with the correct one posterior_b = 1.0 # Example value, replace with the correct one # Create an Inverse Gamma distribution with the given posterior hyperparameters posterior = invgamma(a=posterior_a, scale=posterior_b) # Example: Generate some samples from the posterior distribution samples = posterior.rvs(size=1000) # Show first 5 samples samples[:5]
Now that the code is structured into parts, you can adapt it by loading the actual dataset (I will check if there is a file uploaded).
Let me know if you would like further details or if you have any questions!
Here are 5 related questions:
- How can you visualize the distribution of daily returns?
- How can we validate if the Inverse Gamma distribution fits our data?
- What alternative distributions might be suitable for stock returns modeling?
- How would you perform maximum likelihood estimation on the posterior distribution?
- How do stock return distributions impact portfolio risk assessment?
Tip: When using the pct_change
method, be mindful of data with potential zero values to avoid division errors!
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Statistics
Probability Distributions
Inverse Gamma Distribution
Time Series Analysis
Formulas
Percent Return Formula: (Current Price - Previous Price) / Previous Price * 100
Inverse Gamma Distribution: f(x|α, β) = (β^α / Γ(α)) * x^(-α-1) * exp(-β/x)
Theorems
Properties of the Inverse Gamma Distribution
Suitable Grade Level
Graduate Level
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