Math Problem Statement

calculate the standard deviation of a stock with a expected return of 3.32% with rates of returns in 3 different situations -6% (with a probability of 33%), 2% (probability of 31%), 13% (probability of 36%)

Solution

To calculate the standard deviation of the stock's returns, we first need to calculate the variance, and then take the square root of the variance to obtain the standard deviation.

Steps:

  1. Expected Return (E[R]) is given as 3.32%, but let's calculate it from the probabilities and return rates to confirm the provided value:

E[R]=(P1×R1)+(P2×R2)+(P3×R3)E[R] = (P_1 \times R_1) + (P_2 \times R_2) + (P_3 \times R_3)

Where:

  • P1=33%P_1 = 33\%, P2=31%P_2 = 31\%, P3=36%P_3 = 36\% are the probabilities,
  • R1=6%R_1 = -6\%, R2=2%R_2 = 2\%, R3=13%R_3 = 13\% are the respective returns.

Substitute the values:

E[R]=(0.33×6)+(0.31×2)+(0.36×13)E[R] = (0.33 \times -6) + (0.31 \times 2) + (0.36 \times 13)

E[R]=1.98+0.62+4.68E[R] = -1.98 + 0.62 + 4.68

E[R]=3.32%E[R] = 3.32\%

This matches the given expected return.

  1. Variance (σ2\sigma^2) is calculated as:

σ2=Pi×(RiE[R])2\sigma^2 = \sum P_i \times (R_i - E[R])^2

Substitute the values for each situation:

  • For R1=6%R_1 = -6\%: (R1E[R])2=(63.32)2=(9.32)2=87.06(R_1 - E[R])^2 = (-6 - 3.32)^2 = (-9.32)^2 = 87.06 P1×(R1E[R])2=0.33×87.06=28.74P_1 \times (R_1 - E[R])^2 = 0.33 \times 87.06 = 28.74

  • For R2=2%R_2 = 2\%: (R2E[R])2=(23.32)2=(1.32)2=1.7424(R_2 - E[R])^2 = (2 - 3.32)^2 = (-1.32)^2 = 1.7424 P2×(R2E[R])2=0.31×1.7424=0.539P_2 \times (R_2 - E[R])^2 = 0.31 \times 1.7424 = 0.539

  • For R3=13%R_3 = 13\%: (R3E[R])2=(133.32)2=(9.68)2=93.5424(R_3 - E[R])^2 = (13 - 3.32)^2 = (9.68)^2 = 93.5424 P3×(R3E[R])2=0.36×93.5424=33.694P_3 \times (R_3 - E[R])^2 = 0.36 \times 93.5424 = 33.694

Now, sum up these weighted squared differences to find the variance:

σ2=28.74+0.539+33.694=62.973\sigma^2 = 28.74 + 0.539 + 33.694 = 62.973

  1. Standard Deviation (σ\sigma) is the square root of the variance:

σ=62.9737.95%\sigma = \sqrt{62.973} \approx 7.95\%

Final Answer:

The standard deviation of the stock's return is approximately 7.95%.


Would you like more details on the steps? Here are some related questions to explore further:

  1. How is expected return calculated in portfolio theory?
  2. What is the difference between variance and standard deviation?
  3. How can we use the standard deviation in risk management for stocks?
  4. What is the significance of probabilities in stock returns?
  5. How can we apply this standard deviation to compute value-at-risk (VaR)?

Tip: Always ensure that your returns are in the same units (percentages or decimals) throughout your calculations to avoid errors.

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Statistics
Variance
Standard Deviation
Weighted Averages

Formulas

Expected Return (E[R]) = Σ(P_i × R_i)
Variance (σ²) = Σ(P_i × (R_i - E[R])²)
Standard Deviation (σ) = √Variance

Theorems

Law of Total Probability

Suitable Grade Level

College Level or Advanced High School (Grades 11-12)