Math Problem Statement
Consider the system of components connected as in the accompanying picture. Components 1 and 2 are connected in parallel, so that subsystem works if and only if either 1 or 2 works; since 3 and 4 are connected in series, that subsystem works if and only if both 3 and 4 work. If components work independently of one another and P(component i works) = 0.86 for i = 1, 2 and = 0.75 for i = 3, 4, calculate P(system works). (Round your answer to four decimal places.)
Solution
In this system, we have two subsystems of components connected differently: one in parallel and one in series. Let’s break the problem into smaller parts to find the probability that the entire system works.
Subsystem 1 (Parallel Connection of Components 1 and 2)
For components connected in parallel, the subsystem works if either component 1 or component 2 works. The probability that at least one of them works can be found using the formula:
The probability that both components fail is the product of their individual failure probabilities:
Given that and , the failure probability for each component is . So,
Thus, the probability that the parallel subsystem works is:
Subsystem 2 (Series Connection of Components 3 and 4)
For components connected in series, the subsystem works only if both components 3 and 4 work. The probability that both components work is the product of their individual working probabilities:
Given that and , we have:
System Probability
The entire system works if both subsystems work, i.e., the parallel subsystem (components 1 and 2) works and the series subsystem (components 3 and 4) works. Therefore, the probability that the entire system works is the product of the two subsystem probabilities:
Substitute the calculated values:
Thus, the probability that the system works is approximately:
Let me know if you would like more details or further clarification.
Here are some related questions to explore:
- How would the system probability change if components 1 and 2 had different probabilities?
- What if components 3 and 4 were connected in parallel instead of series?
- How does the system reliability change if the probability of each component working increases?
- What is the system failure probability, given the same setup?
- How would the calculation change if the components were not independent?
Tip: For series connections, the reliability is always lower because all components must work, whereas in parallel connections, having more components increases the chance of success.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability Theory
Series and Parallel Systems
Independent Events
Formulas
P(Parallel subsystem works) = 1 - P(both fail)
P(Series subsystem works) = P(Component 3 works) × P(Component 4 works)
P(System works) = P(Parallel subsystem works) × P(Series subsystem works)
Theorems
Multiplication rule for independent events
Probability of failure for parallel components
Product rule for series components
Suitable Grade Level
Undergraduate level
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