Math Problem Statement
Urn A has three red balls and two white balls and urn B has livro red balls and five white balls. A fair coin is tossed. If it land's heads up, a other wise ball is drawn from urn A, a bark is drawn from urw B. (a) what is the probability that a red ball
is drawn) (b) If a red ball is drawn, what is Probability that coin landed heads up!
Solution
Let’s break down the problem carefully. We have two urns and a fair coin toss.
Urn A contains:
- 3 red balls
- 2 white balls
Urn B contains:
- 4 red balls (assuming "livro" is a typo for "four")
- 5 white balls
The problem states:
- If the coin lands heads (H), a ball is drawn from Urn A.
- If the coin lands tails (T), a ball is drawn from Urn B.
Part (a): What is the probability that a red ball is drawn?
Step 1: Probability of heads and drawing a red ball from Urn A
The probability of landing heads is .
If the coin lands heads, we are drawing from Urn A. The probability of drawing a red ball from Urn A is the ratio of red balls to total balls in Urn A:
Therefore, the combined probability of landing heads and drawing a red ball is:
Step 2: Probability of tails and drawing a red ball from Urn B
The probability of landing tails is .
If the coin lands tails, we are drawing from Urn B. The probability of drawing a red ball from Urn B is:
Thus, the combined probability of landing tails and drawing a red ball is:
Step 3: Total probability of drawing a red ball
We now add the two cases (heads or tails) together: To add these, we need a common denominator:
Thus, the probability that a red ball is drawn is:
Part (b): If a red ball is drawn, what is the probability that the coin landed heads up?
We are asked to find the conditional probability , which is the probability that the coin landed heads given that a red ball was drawn.
Using Bayes' theorem: We already know:
Substituting these values:
Thus, the probability that the coin landed heads given that a red ball was drawn is:
Would you like a detailed breakdown of any part of the solution? Here are 5 related questions you can explore next:
- What is the probability of drawing a white ball?
- How would the probabilities change if Urn A had 4 red balls?
- How would the result change if the coin was biased with a different probability of heads?
- What is the probability that a white ball is drawn given the coin landed tails?
- Can we generalize the method to calculate probabilities for urns?
Tip: Always use Bayes' theorem when you need to reverse a conditional probability!
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Formulas
P(Red) = P(Red and H) + P(Red and T)
Bayes' Theorem: P(H | Red) = P(Red and H) / P(Red)
Theorems
Bayes' Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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