Math Problem Statement

Urn A has three red balls and two white balls and urn B has livro red balls and five white balls. A fair coin is tossed. If it land's heads up, a other wise ball is drawn from urn A, a bark is drawn from urw B. (a) what is the probability that a red ball

is drawn) (b) If a red ball is drawn, what is Probability that coin landed heads up!

Solution

Let’s break down the problem carefully. We have two urns and a fair coin toss.

Urn A contains:

  • 3 red balls
  • 2 white balls

Urn B contains:

  • 4 red balls (assuming "livro" is a typo for "four")
  • 5 white balls

The problem states:

  • If the coin lands heads (H), a ball is drawn from Urn A.
  • If the coin lands tails (T), a ball is drawn from Urn B.

Part (a): What is the probability that a red ball is drawn?

Step 1: Probability of heads and drawing a red ball from Urn A

The probability of landing heads is P(H)=12P(H) = \frac{1}{2}.

If the coin lands heads, we are drawing from Urn A. The probability of drawing a red ball from Urn A is the ratio of red balls to total balls in Urn A: P(RedH)=33+2=35P(\text{Red} | H) = \frac{3}{3 + 2} = \frac{3}{5}

Therefore, the combined probability of landing heads and drawing a red ball is: P(Red and H)=P(H)×P(RedH)=12×35=310P(\text{Red and H}) = P(H) \times P(\text{Red} | H) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{3}{5} = \frac{3}{10}

Step 2: Probability of tails and drawing a red ball from Urn B

The probability of landing tails is P(T)=12P(T) = \frac{1}{2}.

If the coin lands tails, we are drawing from Urn B. The probability of drawing a red ball from Urn B is: P(RedT)=44+5=49P(\text{Red} | T) = \frac{4}{4 + 5} = \frac{4}{9}

Thus, the combined probability of landing tails and drawing a red ball is: P(Red and T)=P(T)×P(RedT)=12×49=418=29P(\text{Red and T}) = P(T) \times P(\text{Red} | T) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{4}{9} = \frac{4}{18} = \frac{2}{9}

Step 3: Total probability of drawing a red ball

We now add the two cases (heads or tails) together: P(Red)=P(Red and H)+P(Red and T)=310+29P(\text{Red}) = P(\text{Red and H}) + P(\text{Red and T}) = \frac{3}{10} + \frac{2}{9} To add these, we need a common denominator: P(Red)=2790+2090=4790P(\text{Red}) = \frac{27}{90} + \frac{20}{90} = \frac{47}{90}

Thus, the probability that a red ball is drawn is: 4790\boxed{\frac{47}{90}}

Part (b): If a red ball is drawn, what is the probability that the coin landed heads up?

We are asked to find the conditional probability P(HRed)P(H | \text{Red}), which is the probability that the coin landed heads given that a red ball was drawn.

Using Bayes' theorem: P(HRed)=P(Red and H)P(Red)P(H | \text{Red}) = \frac{P(\text{Red and H})}{P(\text{Red})} We already know:

  • P(Red and H)=310P(\text{Red and H}) = \frac{3}{10}
  • P(Red)=4790P(\text{Red}) = \frac{47}{90}

Substituting these values: P(HRed)=3104790=310×9047=2747P(H | \text{Red}) = \frac{\frac{3}{10}}{\frac{47}{90}} = \frac{3}{10} \times \frac{90}{47} = \frac{27}{47}

Thus, the probability that the coin landed heads given that a red ball was drawn is: 2747\boxed{\frac{27}{47}}


Would you like a detailed breakdown of any part of the solution? Here are 5 related questions you can explore next:

  1. What is the probability of drawing a white ball?
  2. How would the probabilities change if Urn A had 4 red balls?
  3. How would the result change if the coin was biased with a different probability of heads?
  4. What is the probability that a white ball is drawn given the coin landed tails?
  5. Can we generalize the method to calculate probabilities for nn urns?

Tip: Always use Bayes' theorem when you need to reverse a conditional probability!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem

Formulas

P(Red) = P(Red and H) + P(Red and T)
Bayes' Theorem: P(H | Red) = P(Red and H) / P(Red)

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12