Math Problem Statement

Given 10 multiple choice question, each with four options (a to d), if a student relies entirely on luck, find the probability that: a) None of her answers are correct b) She fails the exam c) She passes the exam Note: getting 5 or more questions correct is considered a pass.

Solution

Let's calculate each probability step by step. The situation involves binomial probability, as each question has two possible outcomes (correct or incorrect), and the probability of success (correct answer) is constant for each trial.

Notations:

  • n=10n = 10: Total number of questions.
  • p=0.25p = 0.25: Probability of answering a question correctly.
  • q=1p=0.75q = 1 - p = 0.75: Probability of answering a question incorrectly.
  • XX: Number of correct answers.

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pkqnkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k q^{n-k}

where (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the number of combinations of nn items taken kk at a time.


(a) Probability that none of her answers are correct (X=0X = 0):

P(X=0)=(100)(0.25)0(0.75)10P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.25)^0 (0.75)^{10}

P(X=0)=1(0.75)10P(X = 0) = 1 \cdot (0.75)^{10}

P(X=0)=0.0563(approximately)P(X = 0) = 0.0563 \quad (\text{approximately})


(b) Probability that she fails the exam (less than 5 correct answers):

Failing means X<5X < 5, i.e., P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4). Calculate each term:

P(X=k)=(10k)(0.25)k(0.75)10kP(X = k) = \binom{10}{k} (0.25)^k (0.75)^{10-k}

For each value of kk:

  • P(X=0)=0.0563P(X = 0) = 0.0563 (from part a)
  • P(X=1)=(101)(0.25)1(0.75)9=100.250.1937=0.484P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.25)^1 (0.75)^9 = 10 \cdot 0.25 \cdot 0.1937 = 0.484
  • P(X=2)=(102)(0.25)2(0.75)8=450.06250.256=0.2816P(X = 2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.25)^2 (0.75)^8 = 45 \cdot 0.0625 \cdot 0.256 = 0.2816
  • P(X=3)=(103)(0.25)3(0.75)7=1200.0156250.3206=0.1503P(X = 3) = \binom{10}{3} (0.25)^3 (0.75)^7 = 120 \cdot 0.015625 \cdot 0.3206 = 0.1503
  • P(X=4)=(104)(0.25)4(0.75)6=2100.003906250.4096=0.0401P(X = 4) = \binom{10}{4} (0.25)^4 (0.75)^6 = 210 \cdot 0.00390625 \cdot 0.4096 = 0.0401

Summing these:

P(fail)=0.0563+0.484+0.2816+0.1503+0.0401=0.9863(approximately)P(\text{fail}) = 0.0563 + 0.484 + 0.2816 + 0.1503 + 0.0401 = 0.9863 \quad (\text{approximately})


(c) Probability that she passes the exam (5 or more correct answers):

Passing means X5X \geq 5. Since P(X5)+P(X<5)=1P(X \geq 5) + P(X < 5) = 1:

P(pass)=1P(fail)P(\text{pass}) = 1 - P(\text{fail})

P(pass)=10.9863=0.0137(approximately)P(\text{pass}) = 1 - 0.9863 = 0.0137 \quad (\text{approximately})


Final Results:

  • (a) Probability none of her answers are correct: 0.0563\mathbf{0.0563}
  • (b) Probability she fails the exam: 0.9863\mathbf{0.9863}
  • (c) Probability she passes the exam: 0.0137\mathbf{0.0137}

Do you want a deeper explanation or any further clarifications? Here are 5 related questions:

  1. How does the probability change if the number of questions increases to 20?
  2. What is the probability of getting exactly 5 correct answers?
  3. How does the assumption of guessing affect these probabilities?
  4. Can we plot the binomial distribution for n=10n = 10 and p=0.25p = 0.25?
  5. What are the odds of passing if pp increases to 0.5?

Tip: The binomial distribution is ideal for scenarios where outcomes are independent and probabilities are fixed.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

Binomial Probability Formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Summation of probabilities for ranges: P(X < 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + ... + P(X = 4)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12