Math Problem Statement

A researcher wishes to conduct a study of the color preferences of new car buyers. Suppose that 50% of this population prefers the color red. If 18 buyers are randomly selected, what is the probability that at least 3 buyers would prefer red? Round your answer to four decimal places.

Solution

The problem describes a binomial probability scenario because we have a fixed number of trials (18 buyers), each trial results in a success (buyer prefers red) or a failure, and the probability of success is constant (50%).

Let:

  • n=18n = 18 (the number of buyers),
  • p=0.50p = 0.50 (the probability that a buyer prefers red),
  • XX be the random variable representing the number of buyers who prefer red.

We need to find P(X3)P(X \geq 3), the probability that at least 3 buyers prefer red.

In this case, it's easier to first calculate P(X<3)P(X < 3), which is the probability that fewer than 3 buyers prefer red. Then, subtract that value from 1:

P(X3)=1P(X<3)=1(P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2))P(X \geq 3) = 1 - P(X < 3) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2))

The probability mass function for a binomial distribution is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n - k}

Where:

  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n - k)!}.

Now, let's compute the probabilities P(X=0)P(X = 0), P(X=1)P(X = 1), and P(X=2)P(X = 2):

  1. P(X=0)=(180)(0.50)0(0.50)18=1×(0.50)180.00000381P(X = 0) = \binom{18}{0} (0.50)^0 (0.50)^{18} = 1 \times (0.50)^{18} \approx 0.00000381
  2. P(X=1)=(181)(0.50)1(0.50)17=18×(0.50)180.00006855P(X = 1) = \binom{18}{1} (0.50)^1 (0.50)^{17} = 18 \times (0.50)^{18} \approx 0.00006855
  3. P(X=2)=(182)(0.50)2(0.50)16=153×(0.50)180.00058267P(X = 2) = \binom{18}{2} (0.50)^2 (0.50)^{16} = 153 \times (0.50)^{18} \approx 0.00058267

So, P(X<3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)0.00000381+0.00006855+0.00058267=0.00065403P(X < 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) \approx 0.00000381 + 0.00006855 + 0.00058267 = 0.00065403.

Finally, P(X3)=10.000654030.9993P(X \geq 3) = 1 - 0.00065403 \approx 0.9993.

Thus, the probability that at least 3 buyers prefer red is approximately 0.9993.

Do you need further details or have any questions?


Here are five relative questions to expand on this:

  1. How do you calculate the binomial coefficient (nk)\binom{n}{k}?
  2. What are the properties of a binomial distribution?
  3. Can the binomial distribution be approximated by a normal distribution in this case?
  4. How would the probability change if the sample size or probability of success changed?
  5. What is the significance of the value pp in the binomial formula?

Tip: In binomial distributions, calculating the complement (1 - the probability of the opposite event) often simplifies problems like this one!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
P(X ≥ 3) = 1 - (P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2))

Theorems

Binomial Theorem
Complement Rule in Probability

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12