Math Problem Statement

Assume that on a standardized test of 100 questions, a person has a probability of 85% of answering any particular question correctly. Find the probability of answering between 77 and 87 questions, inclusive. (Assume independence, and round your answer to four decimal places.) P(77 ≤ X ≤ 87) =

Solution

To solve this, we need to use the binomial distribution, as each question is an independent Bernoulli trial with a success probability p=0.85p = 0.85.

Let:

  • XX be the number of questions answered correctly,
  • n=100n = 100 (total questions),
  • p=0.85p = 0.85 (probability of answering correctly).

We want to find the probability P(77X87)P(77 \leq X \leq 87), which is the sum of the probabilities from X=77X = 77 to X=87X = 87.

Step 1: Approximate with a Normal Distribution

Since nn is large, we can use the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. According to the approximation, if XBinomial(n,p)X \sim \text{Binomial}(n, p), then XX can be approximated by YN(μ,σ2)Y \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2), where:

  • μ=np=100×0.85=85\mu = np = 100 \times 0.85 = 85,
  • σ=np(1p)=100×0.85×0.153.5693\sigma = \sqrt{np(1 - p)} = \sqrt{100 \times 0.85 \times 0.15} \approx 3.5693.

Step 2: Apply the Continuity Correction

To account for the discrete nature of XX, we use a continuity correction. We seek: P(76.5Y87.5)P(76.5 \leq Y \leq 87.5) where YN(85,3.56932)Y \sim N(85, 3.5693^2).

Step 3: Standardize and Calculate

Standardize the values: P(76.5853.5693Z87.5853.5693)P\left( \frac{76.5 - 85}{3.5693} \leq Z \leq \frac{87.5 - 85}{3.5693} \right)

  1. For 76.576.5: 76.5853.56932.38\frac{76.5 - 85}{3.5693} \approx -2.38
  2. For 87.587.5: 87.5853.56930.70\frac{87.5 - 85}{3.5693} \approx 0.70

Now, we find the probabilities using a standard normal table: P(2.38Z0.70)=P(Z0.70)P(Z2.38)P(-2.38 \leq Z \leq 0.70) = P(Z \leq 0.70) - P(Z \leq -2.38)

From standard normal tables:

  • P(Z0.70)0.7580P(Z \leq 0.70) \approx 0.7580,
  • P(Z2.38)0.0087P(Z \leq -2.38) \approx 0.0087.

Thus: P(77X87)0.75800.0087=0.7493P(77 \leq X \leq 87) \approx 0.7580 - 0.0087 = 0.7493

Final Answer

P(77X87)0.7493P(77 \leq X \leq 87) \approx 0.7493

Would you like further details or explanations?


Here are some related questions for further exploration:

  1. What is the probability of getting exactly 85 questions correct?
  2. How would the probability change if the success rate was 90%?
  3. How is the continuity correction applied in normal approximations?
  4. Why is the binomial distribution approximated by the normal distribution?
  5. How would we calculate P(77X87)P(77 \leq X \leq 87) without normal approximation?

Tip: When using normal approximation for binomial distributions, remember to apply the continuity correction to improve accuracy.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Binomial Distribution
Normal Approximation
Probability Theory
Continuity Correction

Formulas

Binomial Distribution Formula: P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1-p)^(n-k)
Normal Approximation: X ~ N(μ, σ^2), where μ = np, σ = sqrt(np(1-p))
Continuity Correction: P(a ≤ X ≤ b) ≈ P(a-0.5 ≤ Y ≤ b+0.5) for large n

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12