Math Problem Statement

solve all giving numerical values to 6 decimal places

Solve all parts of the following problem related to a Poisson process with a rate of λ = 4.4 customers every 10 minutes, and provide numerical answers rounded to six decimal places.

Solution

Let's solve each part of the problem step-by-step, with numerical values rounded to six decimal places.

Given Information:

  • Customers arrive at a rate of λ=4.4\lambda = 4.4 per 10 minutes.
  • We are dealing with the Poisson process, so the inter-arrival times follow an exponential distribution with rate parameter λ=4.4\lambda = 4.4.

Solution Steps:

Part (a)

How many minutes can you expect to pass between successive customers entering the convenience store?

Since the inter-arrival time follows an exponential distribution with rate λ=4.4\lambda = 4.4, the expected time between arrivals (mean of the exponential distribution) is: Expected time=1λ=14.4=0.227273 minutes\text{Expected time} = \frac{1}{\lambda} = \frac{1}{4.4} = 0.227273 \text{ minutes}

Part (b)

Compute the probability that at most 1.5 minutes will pass between the arrival of one customer and the next.

To find P(X1.5)P(X \leq 1.5), where XX is the time between arrivals, we use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the exponential distribution: P(Xx)=1eλxP(X \leq x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x} Substituting λ=4.4\lambda = 4.4 and x=1.5x = 1.5: P(X1.5)=1e4.4×1.5=1e6.6=10.001363=0.998637P(X \leq 1.5) = 1 - e^{-4.4 \times 1.5} = 1 - e^{-6.6} = 1 - 0.001363 = 0.998637

Part (c)

Find the probability that at least 1.25 to at most 3.5 minutes pass between the entry of two customers in the store.

To find P(1.25X3.5)P(1.25 \leq X \leq 3.5), we calculate: P(1.25X3.5)=P(X3.5)P(X1.25)P(1.25 \leq X \leq 3.5) = P(X \leq 3.5) - P(X \leq 1.25)

  1. Calculate P(X3.5)P(X \leq 3.5): P(X3.5)=1e4.4×3.5=1e15.410.000201=0.999799P(X \leq 3.5) = 1 - e^{-4.4 \times 3.5} = 1 - e^{-15.4} \approx 1 - 0.000201 = 0.999799

  2. Calculate P(X1.25)P(X \leq 1.25): P(X1.25)=1e4.4×1.25=1e5.5=10.004070=0.995930P(X \leq 1.25) = 1 - e^{-4.4 \times 1.25} = 1 - e^{-5.5} = 1 - 0.004070 = 0.995930

Thus: P(1.25X3.5)=0.9997990.995930=0.003869P(1.25 \leq X \leq 3.5) = 0.999799 - 0.995930 = 0.003869

Part (d)

What is the probability that, in total, at least 2.5 minutes will pass until the next customer enters the store?

To find P(X2.5)P(X \geq 2.5), we use the complementary probability: P(X2.5)=1P(X2.5)P(X \geq 2.5) = 1 - P(X \leq 2.5)

  1. Calculate P(X2.5)P(X \leq 2.5): P(X2.5)=1e4.4×2.5=1e11=10.000017=0.999983P(X \leq 2.5) = 1 - e^{-4.4 \times 2.5} = 1 - e^{-11} = 1 - 0.000017 = 0.999983

Thus: P(X2.5)=10.999983=0.000017P(X \geq 2.5) = 1 - 0.999983 = 0.000017

Summary of Answers:

  • (a) Expected time: 0.2272730.227273 minutes
  • (b) P(X1.5)=0.998637P(X \leq 1.5) = 0.998637
  • (c) P(1.25X3.5)=0.003869P(1.25 \leq X \leq 3.5) = 0.003869
  • (d) P(X2.5)=0.000017P(X \geq 2.5) = 0.000017

Would you like more details on any of these steps or additional questions?

Additional Related Questions:

  1. How would the probabilities change if λ\lambda were increased?
  2. What is the variance of the time between customer arrivals?
  3. How does the Poisson rate affect the expected inter-arrival time?
  4. How can we interpret the probability in part (d) in real-life terms?
  5. How would we compute these probabilities if the arrivals did not follow an exponential distribution?

Tip:

Remember that for exponentially distributed times, the probability of waiting more than a given time is just the survival function P(X>x)=eλxP(X > x) = e^{-\lambda x}.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Process
Exponential Distribution

Formulas

Expected time = 1 / λ
P(X ≤ x) = 1 - e^(-λx) for exponential distribution cumulative distribution function (CDF)
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(X ≤ b) - P(X ≤ a)

Theorems

Poisson Process properties
Exponential distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate (Statistics or Probability)