Math Problem Statement

solve all no rounding

You are interested in finding out the mean number of customers entering a 24-hour convenience store every 10-minutes. You suspect this can be modeled by the Poisson distribution with a mean of λ = 4.24 customers. You are to randomly pick n = 52 10-minute time frames and compute the value of X̄.

Solution

Here’s how to solve the problem step by step without rounding until the end.


(a) What can you expect the value of Xˉ\bar{X} to be?

The expected value of the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is the same as the population mean λ\lambda, since Xˉ\bar{X} is an unbiased estimator of λ\lambda.
Thus:

E(Xˉ)=λ=4.24E(\bar{X}) = \lambda = 4.24


(b) Find the value of the standard deviation of Xˉ\bar{X}.

For a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation of the sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} is given by:

σXˉ=σn\sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}

Where:

  • σ=λ\sigma = \sqrt{\lambda}, since for Poisson, variance = mean = λ\lambda,
  • n=52n = 52.

Substitute the values: σ=4.24andσXˉ=4.2452\sigma = \sqrt{4.24} \quad \text{and} \quad \sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{\sqrt{4.24}}{\sqrt{52}}

Calculating: σ=2.058052,σXˉ=2.0580527.2111020.285435\sigma = 2.058052, \quad \sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{2.058052}{7.211102} \approx 0.285435

Thus, σXˉ=0.285435\sigma_{\bar{X}} = 0.285435.


(c) Find the probability that the mean of the sample of 52 is between 1.2 and 4.8.

We calculate the z-scores for X=1.2X = 1.2 and X=4.8X = 4.8 using:

z=XμσXˉz = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma_{\bar{X}}}

Where:

  • μ=4.24\mu = 4.24,
  • σXˉ=0.285435\sigma_{\bar{X}} = 0.285435.

Step 1: Calculate zz-scores

For X=1.2X = 1.2: z1=1.24.240.285435=3.040.28543510.650z_1 = \frac{1.2 - 4.24}{0.285435} = \frac{-3.04}{0.285435} \approx -10.650

For X=4.8X = 4.8: z2=4.84.240.285435=0.560.2854351.962z_2 = \frac{4.8 - 4.24}{0.285435} = \frac{0.56}{0.285435} \approx 1.962

Step 2: Find probabilities

Using the standard normal distribution table:

  • P(z<10.650)P(z < -10.650) is practically 0,
  • P(z<1.962)0.9751P(z < 1.962) \approx 0.9751.

Thus: P(1.2Xˉ4.8)=P(z2)P(z1)0.975100.9751P(1.2 \leq \bar{X} \leq 4.8) = P(z_2) - P(z_1) \approx 0.9751 - 0 \approx 0.9751


(d) 91% of the time, the observed value of Xˉ\bar{X} will exceed what value?

For this, find the zz-score corresponding to the 91st percentile (i.e., 10.91=0.091 - 0.91 = 0.09 to the left):

From the z-table:

  • P(z<1.340)=0.0900P(z < -1.340) = 0.0900.

Now, use the z-score formula to find XX:

z=XμσXˉ    X=μ+zσXˉz = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma_{\bar{X}}} \implies X = \mu + z \cdot \sigma_{\bar{X}}

Substitute: X=4.24+(1.340)(0.285435)4.240.3824773.8575X = 4.24 + (-1.340)(0.285435) \approx 4.24 - 0.382477 \approx 3.8575


Summary of Answers

(a) Xˉ=4.24\bar{X} = 4.24
(b) σXˉ=0.285435\sigma_{\bar{X}} = 0.285435
(c) P(1.2Xˉ4.8)=0.9751P(1.2 \leq \bar{X} \leq 4.8) = 0.9751
(d) Observed Xˉ>3.8575\bar{X} > 3.8575 for 91% of the time.


Would you like further explanations or computations?
Here are 5 related questions:

  1. How is the Poisson distribution applied in real-world scenarios?
  2. What is the relationship between sample size and standard error?
  3. How do you interpret z-scores in probability?
  4. Can you explain why the expected value equals the population mean?
  5. How does increasing nn affect σXˉ\sigma_{\bar{X}}?

Tip: Always verify assumptions (e.g., Poisson distribution validity) when solving statistical problems!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Poisson Distribution
Sample Mean
Standard Deviation
Probability
z-scores

Formulas

E(X̄) = λ
σ = √λ
σX̄ = σ / √n
z = (X - μ) / σX̄
P(z) = Area under standard normal curve

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Properties of Poisson Distribution

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate Statistics