Math Problem Statement

You are interested in finding out the mean number of customers entering a 24-hour convenience store every 10 minutes. You suspect this can be modeled by the Poisson distribution with a mean of λ = 4.43 customers. You are to randomly pick n = 79 10-minute time frames, and observe the number of customers who enter the convenience store in each. After which, you are to average the 79 counts you have. That is, compute the value of X̄.

Solution

The problem shown in the image involves a Poisson distribution with the following key parameters:

  • Poisson distribution parameter (λ\lambda): 4.43 (the average number of customers every 10 minutes)
  • Sample size (nn): 79 (79 ten-minute time frames)

Part (a) - Expected Value of Xˉ\bar{X}

Since the mean of the Poisson distribution is λ\lambda, the expected value of Xˉ\bar{X} (the sample mean) is simply the population mean:

E(Xˉ)=λ=4.43E(\bar{X}) = \lambda = 4.43

Part (b) - Standard Deviation of Xˉ\bar{X}

For a Poisson distribution, the standard deviation of the sample mean is calculated as:

σXˉ=σn\sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} where σ\sigma is the standard deviation of the population, which is the square root of λ\lambda:

σ=λ=4.43\sigma = \sqrt{\lambda} = \sqrt{4.43} Thus, the standard deviation of Xˉ\bar{X} is:

σXˉ=4.43792.1058.8880.2368\sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{\sqrt{4.43}}{\sqrt{79}} \approx \frac{2.105}{8.888} \approx 0.2368

Part (c) - Probability P(3.8Xˉ4.7)P(3.8 \leq \bar{X} \leq 4.7)

For this, we can standardize the sample mean using the normal approximation. The Z-score for the bounds (3.8 and 4.7) is given by:

Z=XˉλσXˉZ = \frac{\bar{X} - \lambda}{\sigma_{\bar{X}}}

  • For 3.83.8: Z1=3.84.430.23682.69Z_1 = \frac{3.8 - 4.43}{0.2368} \approx -2.69

  • For 4.74.7: Z2=4.74.430.23681.14Z_2 = \frac{4.7 - 4.43}{0.2368} \approx 1.14

Using a Z-table, the probabilities for these Z-scores are:

P(Z1ZZ2)=P(2.69Z1.14)P(Z_1 \leq Z \leq Z_2) = P(-2.69 \leq Z \leq 1.14)

From Z-tables:

  • P(Z1=2.69)0.0036P(Z_1 = -2.69) \approx 0.0036
  • P(Z2=1.14)0.8729P(Z_2 = 1.14) \approx 0.8729

Thus, the probability is:

P(3.8Xˉ4.7)=0.87290.0036=0.8693P(3.8 \leq \bar{X} \leq 4.7) = 0.8729 - 0.0036 = 0.8693

Part (d) - 91% of the Time, the Value of Xˉ\bar{X} Will Exceed What Value?

We need to find the Z-score corresponding to a cumulative probability of 10.91=0.091 - 0.91 = 0.09 (since we are looking for the lower tail), which from Z-tables gives Z=1.34Z = -1.34. Now, use the Z-score formula to find the corresponding Xˉ\bar{X}:

Xˉ=λ+ZσXˉ=4.43+(1.34)0.2368\bar{X} = \lambda + Z \cdot \sigma_{\bar{X}} = 4.43 + (-1.34) \cdot 0.2368

Xˉ4.430.3173=4.1127\bar{X} \approx 4.43 - 0.3173 = 4.1127

So, 91% of the time, the observed value of Xˉ\bar{X} will exceed approximately 4.1127.


Would you like more details or explanations for any part? Here are five related questions you can explore further:

  1. How does the Poisson distribution approximate to a normal distribution for large nn?
  2. How do Z-scores translate probabilities for non-standard normal distributions?
  3. Why is σXˉ\sigma_{\bar{X}} calculated using the square root of nn?
  4. How would the results change if λ\lambda were much larger or smaller?
  5. What is the impact of changing the confidence level in Part (d)?

Tip: The Poisson distribution becomes more symmetric and approximates the normal distribution well for large values of λ\lambda.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Poisson Distribution
Normal Approximation
Z-Score

Formulas

Expected value of X̄: E(X̄) = λ
Standard deviation of X̄: σX̄ = σ / √n = √λ / √n
Z-score: Z = (X̄ - λ) / σX̄

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Poisson Distribution
Normal Distribution Approximation

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate - Statistics