Math Problem Statement
Their manager decides to pool Veda and Jomo’s calls. Now, they receive calls at a rate of 1.5+1.2 = 2.7 in 5 minutes. They won’t be able to keep up and will have abandoned calls if there are more than 4 calls arriving in 5 minutes. Determine the probability that the combined queue will have abandoned calls during a randomly chosen interval of five minutes.
Solution
This problem involves a Poisson process since calls are arriving randomly over time, and we need to determine the probability of having more than 4 calls arriving in 5 minutes. The arrival rate of calls is the sum of Veda's and Jomo's individual rates, i.e., calls per 5 minutes.
Step 1: Understand the Poisson distribution
The number of calls in a Poisson process follows the Poisson distribution. The probability mass function for the Poisson distribution is given by:
where:
- is the average number of events (in this case, the average number of calls in 5 minutes),
- is the number of events (calls),
- is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately 2.71828).
In this case, calls per 5 minutes.
Step 2: Probability of more than 4 calls
We need to find the probability that more than 4 calls arrive in 5 minutes. This is equivalent to calculating:
To calculate , we need to sum the probabilities for .
Using the Poisson formula for each :
We will now calculate each term and sum them.
Step 3: Calculate the probabilities
We will calculate the probabilities step by step for and sum them up to get , then subtract from 1 to get .The probability that more than 4 calls will arrive during a randomly chosen 5-minute interval, leading to abandoned calls, is approximately 0.137 or 13.7%.
Would you like more details on how the calculations were done or have any further questions?
Here are 5 related questions to expand on this topic:
- How does the Poisson distribution change if the call rate increases to 3.5 per 5 minutes?
- What is the probability of receiving exactly 5 calls in 5 minutes?
- How would the probability of more than 4 calls change if the time interval was 10 minutes instead of 5?
- What is the expected number of calls in a 10-minute interval if the rate remains 2.7 per 5 minutes?
- How would a different queueing strategy impact the probability of abandoned calls?
Tip: In Poisson processes, the time interval and the rate are crucial factors. If you double the time, the expected number of events also doubles.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Poisson Distribution
Probability
Formulas
P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X <= 4)
Theorems
Poisson Process
Suitable Grade Level
University level (Statistics/Probability)
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