Math Problem Statement

Their manager decides to pool Veda and Jomo’s calls. Now, they receive calls at a rate of 1.5+1.2 = 2.7 in 5 minutes. They won’t be able to keep up and will have abandoned calls if there are more than 4 calls arriving in 5 minutes. Determine the probability that the combined queue will have abandoned calls during a randomly chosen interval of five minutes.

Solution

This problem involves a Poisson process since calls are arriving randomly over time, and we need to determine the probability of having more than 4 calls arriving in 5 minutes. The arrival rate of calls is the sum of Veda's and Jomo's individual rates, i.e., 1.5+1.2=2.71.5 + 1.2 = 2.7 calls per 5 minutes.

Step 1: Understand the Poisson distribution

The number of calls in a Poisson process follows the Poisson distribution. The probability mass function for the Poisson distribution is given by:

P(X=k)=λkeλk!P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!}

where:

  • λ\lambda is the average number of events (in this case, the average number of calls in 5 minutes),
  • kk is the number of events (calls),
  • ee is the base of the natural logarithm (approximately 2.71828).

In this case, λ=2.7\lambda = 2.7 calls per 5 minutes.

Step 2: Probability of more than 4 calls

We need to find the probability that more than 4 calls arrive in 5 minutes. This is equivalent to calculating:

P(X>4)=1P(X4)P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 4)

To calculate P(X4)P(X \leq 4), we need to sum the probabilities for X=0,1,2,3,4X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.

P(X4)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)P(X \leq 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)

Using the Poisson formula for each kk:

P(X=k)=2.7ke2.7k!P(X = k) = \frac{2.7^k e^{-2.7}}{k!}

We will now calculate each term and sum them.

Step 3: Calculate the probabilities

We will calculate the probabilities step by step for k=0,1,2,3,4k = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and sum them up to get P(X4)P(X \leq 4), then subtract from 1 to get P(X>4)P(X > 4).The probability that more than 4 calls will arrive during a randomly chosen 5-minute interval, leading to abandoned calls, is approximately 0.137 or 13.7%.

Would you like more details on how the calculations were done or have any further questions?

Here are 5 related questions to expand on this topic:

  1. How does the Poisson distribution change if the call rate increases to 3.5 per 5 minutes?
  2. What is the probability of receiving exactly 5 calls in 5 minutes?
  3. How would the probability of more than 4 calls change if the time interval was 10 minutes instead of 5?
  4. What is the expected number of calls in a 10-minute interval if the rate remains 2.7 per 5 minutes?
  5. How would a different queueing strategy impact the probability of abandoned calls?

Tip: In Poisson processes, the time interval and the rate are crucial factors. If you double the time, the expected number of events also doubles.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Poisson Distribution
Probability

Formulas

P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
P(X > 4) = 1 - P(X <= 4)

Theorems

Poisson Process

Suitable Grade Level

University level (Statistics/Probability)