Math Problem Statement

Computer Help Hot Line receives, on average, 6 calls per hour asking for assistance. The distribution is Poisson. For any randomly selected hour, find the probability that the company will receive

a) At least 6 calls

b) 4 or more calls

Solution

The number of calls received per hour follows a Poisson distribution with a mean (or average) λ=6\lambda = 6. The Poisson probability mass function (PMF) is given by:

P(X=k)=λkeλk!P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k e^{-\lambda}}{k!} where:

  • λ=6\lambda = 6 (the average number of calls per hour),
  • kk is the number of calls,
  • ee is the base of the natural logarithm (2.718\approx 2.718).

We can use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the Poisson distribution to calculate probabilities for "at least" or "4 or more" scenarios.

a) Probability of receiving at least 6 calls:

To calculate P(X6)P(X \geq 6), we can use the complement rule:

P(X6)=1P(X<6)=1P(X5)P(X \geq 6) = 1 - P(X < 6) = 1 - P(X \leq 5)

Now, we need to calculate P(X5)P(X \leq 5) using the Poisson CDF:

P(X5)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)++P(X=5)P(X \leq 5) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + \cdots + P(X = 5)

b) Probability of receiving 4 or more calls:

This is represented as P(X4)P(X \geq 4), and again using the complement rule:

P(X4)=1P(X<4)=1P(X3)P(X \geq 4) = 1 - P(X < 4) = 1 - P(X \leq 3)

Next, I'll calculate both probabilities using the formulas.The probabilities are as follows:

a) The probability that the company will receive at least 6 calls in an hour:

P(X6)=0.554P(X \geq 6) = 0.554

b) The probability that the company will receive 4 or more calls in an hour:

P(X4)=0.849P(X \geq 4) = 0.849

Let me know if you need further details or have any questions!

Here are 5 related questions for further exploration:

  1. What is the probability of receiving exactly 6 calls in an hour?
  2. What is the probability of receiving fewer than 6 calls?
  3. What is the probability of receiving between 4 and 8 calls?
  4. How would the probabilities change if the average number of calls per hour increased to 8?
  5. What is the expected number of calls in a 2-hour period?

Tip: For Poisson-distributed events, increasing the observation period scales the mean λ\lambda accordingly. For example, for 2 hours, λ\lambda would double.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Poisson Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (λ^k * e^(-λ)) / k!
P(X ≥ 6) = 1 - P(X ≤ 5)
P(X ≥ 4) = 1 - P(X ≤ 3)

Theorems

Poisson Distribution
Complement Rule

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12