Math Problem Statement

The computer calculated the following linear regression equation: f=38.03+0.07*t (in which a0,a1 are averages derived from the 55 samples) and also the following other information points: Sa0=14.2, Sa1=0.05, r^2=0.41

Your general task is to verify if there is a correlation or not, using a hypothesis test at 1% significance.

Interpret the estimated slope coefficient! What is the null hypothesis and what is the alternative hypothesis? Which test do you have to conduct and why?

Solution

1. Interpreting the Estimated Slope Coefficient

The regression equation is given as: f=38.03+0.07tf = 38.03 + 0.07 \cdot t The slope coefficient a1=0.07a_1 = 0.07 means that for each unit increase in tt, the expected value of ff increases by 0.07 units on average.

2. Null and Alternative Hypothesis

To test for correlation (i.e., to determine whether the slope a1a_1 is significantly different from zero), the hypotheses are:

  • Null Hypothesis H0H_0: a1=0a_1 = 0 (No correlation, meaning tt does not affect ff)
  • Alternative Hypothesis H1H_1: a10a_1 \neq 0 (There is a correlation, meaning tt affects ff)

3. Test to Conduct and Why

We need to perform a t-test on the slope coefficient a1a_1. This is because we want to determine if the slope is significantly different from zero, which directly tests for the presence of a linear relationship.

4. Test Statistic for the Slope a1a_1

The test statistic for a slope a1a_1 in linear regression is given by: t=a1Sa1t = \frac{a_1}{S_{a_1}} Where:

  • a1=0.07a_1 = 0.07 (estimated slope coefficient)
  • Sa1=0.05S_{a_1} = 0.05 (standard error of the slope)

Let's calculate the tt-statistic:

t=0.070.05=1.4t = \frac{0.07}{0.05} = 1.4

5. Critical Value for tt-distribution

With 55 samples, the degrees of freedom df=552=53df = 55 - 2 = 53. For a two-tailed test at a 1% significance level (α=0.01\alpha = 0.01), we need to compare the calculated tt-statistic against the critical value of tt for 53 degrees of freedom.

Using a tt-table, the critical tt-value for a two-tailed test with df=53df = 53 at α=0.01\alpha = 0.01 is approximately tcrit2.67t_{crit} \approx 2.67.

6. Decision: Reject or Fail to Reject H0H_0?

Since t=1.4|t| = 1.4 is less than tcrit=2.67t_{crit} = 2.67, we fail to reject the null hypothesis at the 1% significance level.

This means that there is insufficient evidence to conclude that there is a statistically significant correlation between tt and ff at the 1% level.

Conclusion:

  • Interpretation of the slope: The slope 0.070.07 indicates a small positive relationship between tt and ff, but this relationship is not statistically significant at the 1% level.
  • Correlation conclusion: There is no statistically significant correlation between tt and ff at the 1% significance level.

Would you like more details on any part of this process?

Here are 5 related questions you might find interesting:

  1. How does increasing the sample size affect the hypothesis test results?
  2. What is the interpretation of the r2r^2 value of 0.41 in this context?
  3. How would the decision change if the significance level were 5% instead of 1%?
  4. What does the value Sa0=14.2S_{a_0} = 14.2 tell us about the intercept?
  5. What are the assumptions of linear regression that need to be satisfied for this test to be valid?

Tip: Always check the r2r^2 value to understand how much of the variation in the dependent variable is explained by the independent variable in regression models.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Hypothesis Testing
Statistical Significance

Formulas

Linear regression equation: f = a0 + a1*t
Test statistic formula: t = a1 / Sa1
Degrees of freedom: df = n - 2

Theorems

t-test for slope in linear regression
Null and alternative hypothesis

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate level (Statistics, Economics, or Data Science)