Math Problem Statement
Life expectancy. The table shows the life expectancy (in years) at birth for residents of the United States from 1970 to 2005. Let x represent the time in years with x=0 representing 1970. Find an exponential regression model (y=a⋅bx) for this data set and use it to estimate the life expectancy of a person born in 2015.
Year of Birth Life Expectancy 1970 70.8 1975 72.6 1980 73.7 1985 74.7 1990 75.4 1995 75.9 2000 76.9 2005 77.7
Exponential regression model: y=
Number ⋅ ( 1.0025 x )
(Round numbers in the model to at least four decimal places
Solution
To find the exponential regression model for this data, we'll use the general form of the exponential equation:
Where:
- is the life expectancy,
- is the initial life expectancy (at , which corresponds to the year 1970),
- is the growth factor (which describes the rate of increase per year),
- is the number of years since 1970.
Steps for Exponential Regression:
-
Organize the data:
- For , the year is 1970, so the life expectancy is 70.8 years.
- For , the year is 1975, so the life expectancy is 72.6 years.
- And so on.
Here is the data:
\hline x & y \\ \hline 0 & 70.8 \\ 5 & 72.6 \\ 10 & 73.7 \\ 15 & 74.7 \\ 20 & 75.4 \\ 25 & 75.9 \\ 30 & 76.9 \\ 35 & 77.7 \\ \hline \end{array}$$ -
Use statistical software or a calculator to perform exponential regression. After calculating, we get the following regression model:
So, the exponential regression model is:
Estimating Life Expectancy for 2015:
- For 2015, .
- Substitute into the regression model:
Now, calculate the value of :
So, the estimated life expectancy for a person born in 2015 is approximately 79.8 years.
Would you like further details on exponential regression or the calculation process?
Here are five related questions:
- How do we calculate the parameters and for exponential regression?
- What other models could be used to describe life expectancy data, such as linear or logarithmic models?
- How do you interpret the growth factor in an exponential model?
- How can we find the exact regression equation using a graphing calculator?
- What is the significance of rounding numbers when dealing with regression models?
Tip: When working with regression models, ensure to round your results correctly based on the context or precision required in your work!
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Exponential Regression
Statistics
Algebra
Formulas
y = a ⋅ b^x
Theorems
Exponential Regression Model
Growth Factor Interpretation
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12