Math Problem Statement

The table gives values of average life expectancy, in years, for a child born in a given year in the United States. A linear regression is used to construct a linear function model L, where t represents the birth year, t = 0 is the year 2000, and L(t) represents the life expectancy in years. For what year does the model predict that the life expectancy of a child born in that year will be 83 years?

Solution

The table provided in the image shows the life expectancy data from different years, and the question asks for the year when life expectancy will reach 83 years, based on a linear model. To solve this, we can follow these steps:

Step 1: Define Variables

  • t=0t = 0 corresponds to the year 2000.
  • L(t)L(t) is the life expectancy in the year corresponding to tt.
  • The goal is to determine the year when life expectancy L(t)=83L(t) = 83 years.

Step 2: Gather Data Points

From the table, we can extract two points:

  • In 2000 (t=0t = 0), life expectancy L(0)=76.75L(0) = 76.75 years.
  • In 2019 (t=19t = 19), life expectancy L(19)=78.87L(19) = 78.87 years.

Step 3: Find the Linear Equation

The linear model will be of the form L(t)=mt+bL(t) = mt + b, where mm is the slope, and bb is the intercept. We can calculate the slope using the formula:

m=L(19)L(0)190=78.8776.7519=2.12190.1116m = \frac{L(19) - L(0)}{19 - 0} = \frac{78.87 - 76.75}{19} = \frac{2.12}{19} \approx 0.1116

Now, using the point t=0t = 0, L(0)=76.75L(0) = 76.75, we can find bb:

L(0)=76.75=0.1116(0)+b    b=76.75L(0) = 76.75 = 0.1116(0) + b \implies b = 76.75

So, the equation for life expectancy is:

L(t)=0.1116t+76.75L(t) = 0.1116t + 76.75

Step 4: Solve for tt when L(t)=83L(t) = 83

Set L(t)=83L(t) = 83:

83=0.1116t+76.7583 = 0.1116t + 76.75

Solving for tt:

8376.75=0.1116t    6.25=0.1116t    t=6.250.11165683 - 76.75 = 0.1116t \implies 6.25 = 0.1116t \implies t = \frac{6.25}{0.1116} \approx 56

So, t=56t = 56, which corresponds to the year:

2000+56=20562000 + 56 = 2056

Thus, the model predicts that life expectancy will reach 83 years in 2056 (Option C).

Would you like more details or have any questions? Here are five related questions:

  1. How is a linear regression model constructed from data points?
  2. How do you calculate the slope in a linear model?
  3. What are the limitations of using a linear model for future predictions?
  4. How do different data points affect the slope and intercept in linear regression?
  5. How can we test the accuracy of the model as new data points emerge?

Tip: Always check if the data suggests a linear trend before applying a linear model for predictions.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Algebra
Slope-Intercept Form

Formulas

Linear equation formula L(t) = mt + b
Slope formula m = (y2 - y1) / (x2 - x1)

Theorems

Linear equation properties

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12