Math Problem Statement

At a certain bus stop, the length of time needed to wait for the next bus is known to follow an Exponential probability distribution where the mean is 1.6 hours. Let X be the time (in hours) that a randomly-selected passenger needed to wait for the next bus.

Then find the probability that it was between 330 and 435 minutes, rounded to 3 places.

Solution

Let's solve this problem involving an exponential distribution with a given mean. Here’s the step-by-step solution:

Step 1: Define the Parameters

  • The waiting time XX is modeled by an exponential distribution.

  • The mean μ\mu of the exponential distribution is given as 1.6 hours.

  • The rate parameter λ\lambda of the exponential distribution is the reciprocal of the mean:

    λ=1μ=11.6=0.625\lambda = \frac{1}{\mu} = \frac{1}{1.6} = 0.625

The exponential distribution's probability density function (PDF) is given by:

f(x)=λeλx,x0f(x) = \lambda e^{-\lambda x}, \quad x \geq 0

For cumulative probability calculations, we use the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the exponential distribution:

F(x)=1eλxF(x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x}

Step 2: Convert Minutes to Hours

The time range provided is 330 minutes to 435 minutes. We need to convert these values into hours:

  • 330330 minutes =33060=5.5= \frac{330}{60} = 5.5 hours
  • 435435 minutes =43560=7.25= \frac{435}{60} = 7.25 hours

Thus, we need to find:

P(5.5X7.25)P(5.5 \leq X \leq 7.25)

Step 3: Use the CDF to Find Probabilities

To find the probability that XX is between 5.5 and 7.25 hours, we use the CDF of the exponential distribution:

P(aXb)=F(b)F(a)P(a \leq X \leq b) = F(b) - F(a)

For the exponential distribution, the CDF is:

F(x)=1eλxF(x) = 1 - e^{-\lambda x}

Now, calculate F(7.25)F(7.25) and F(5.5)F(5.5):

  • F(7.25)=1e0.625×7.25F(7.25) = 1 - e^{-0.625 \times 7.25}
  • F(5.5)=1e0.625×5.5F(5.5) = 1 - e^{-0.625 \times 5.5}

Step 4: Compute the Values

Let's compute the values:

  1. For F(7.25)F(7.25):

    F(7.25)=1e4.5312510.0108=0.9892F(7.25) = 1 - e^{-4.53125} \approx 1 - 0.0108 = 0.9892

  2. For F(5.5)F(5.5):

    F(5.5)=1e3.437510.0322=0.9678F(5.5) = 1 - e^{-3.4375} \approx 1 - 0.0322 = 0.9678

Step 5: Find the Probability

Now, find the probability that XX is between 5.5 and 7.25 hours:

P(5.5X7.25)=F(7.25)F(5.5)P(5.5 \leq X \leq 7.25) = F(7.25) - F(5.5)

P(5.5X7.25)=0.98920.9678=0.0214P(5.5 \leq X \leq 7.25) = 0.9892 - 0.9678 = 0.0214

Step 6: Round to 3 Decimal Places

Rounded to three decimal places:

P(5.5X7.25)0.021P(5.5 \leq X \leq 7.25) \approx 0.021

Final Answer

The probability that the waiting time is between 330 and 435 minutes is approximately 0.021.


Do you need any more details or have questions about this solution?

Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How do you calculate the mean of an exponential distribution given the rate parameter?
  2. What are the key properties of an exponential distribution?
  3. How would you find the median waiting time for an exponential distribution with a given mean?
  4. If the mean waiting time changes to 2 hours, how would the probability change for the same time range?
  5. How does the exponential distribution relate to the Poisson process?

Tip: Remember, the exponential distribution is memoryless, which means that the probability of waiting longer does not depend on how much time has already passed. This is a unique feature of the exponential distribution!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability Theory
Exponential Distribution
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF)

Formulas

Rate parameter: λ = 1 / μ
CDF of Exponential Distribution: F(x) = 1 - e^(-λx)

Theorems

Exponential Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12