Math Problem Statement

A share of a company costs Rs 500 500 today. Suppose today's share price increases by 50 % with probability 0.6 0.6 and decreases by 50 % with probability 0.4 0.4.Independent of today, suppose that tomorrow's share price increases by 20% with probability 0.5 0.5, and decreases by 30% with probability 0.5 0.5. If you decide to buy 3 3 shares today, find the expected profit (in Rs) at the end of 2 days

Solution

To find the expected profit, we'll calculate the expected value of the stock price after 2 days and compare it to the initial investment.

Step 1: Initial investment

The cost of 3 shares today is: Initial Investment=3×500=1500Rs\text{Initial Investment} = 3 \times 500 = 1500 \, \text{Rs}

Step 2: Share price at the end of Day 1

Let the share price increase by 50% with probability 0.6 or decrease by 50% with probability 0.4. After Day 1, the possible outcomes for the share price are:

  • Increase by 50%: New price = 500×(1+0.50)=750Rs500 \times (1 + 0.50) = 750 \, \text{Rs}
  • Decrease by 50%: New price = 500×(10.50)=250Rs500 \times (1 - 0.50) = 250 \, \text{Rs}

The expected share price at the end of Day 1 is: Expected Price on Day 1=0.6×750+0.4×250=450+100=550Rs\text{Expected Price on Day 1} = 0.6 \times 750 + 0.4 \times 250 = 450 + 100 = 550 \, \text{Rs}

Step 3: Share price at the end of Day 2

Independent of Day 1, the share price on Day 2 can increase by 20% or decrease by 30%, both with probability 0.5. So, we need to calculate the expected share price for both possible outcomes of Day 1.

Case 1: Price after Day 1 is 750 Rs

  • Increase by 20%: New price = 750×(1+0.20)=900Rs750 \times (1 + 0.20) = 900 \, \text{Rs}
  • Decrease by 30%: New price = 750×(10.30)=525Rs750 \times (1 - 0.30) = 525 \, \text{Rs}

Expected share price if Day 1 ends with 750 Rs: Expected Price=0.5×900+0.5×525=450+262.5=712.5Rs\text{Expected Price} = 0.5 \times 900 + 0.5 \times 525 = 450 + 262.5 = 712.5 \, \text{Rs}

Case 2: Price after Day 1 is 250 Rs

  • Increase by 20%: New price = 250×(1+0.20)=300Rs250 \times (1 + 0.20) = 300 \, \text{Rs}
  • Decrease by 30%: New price = 250×(10.30)=175Rs250 \times (1 - 0.30) = 175 \, \text{Rs}

Expected share price if Day 1 ends with 250 Rs: Expected Price=0.5×300+0.5×175=150+87.5=237.5Rs\text{Expected Price} = 0.5 \times 300 + 0.5 \times 175 = 150 + 87.5 = 237.5 \, \text{Rs}

Step 4: Overall expected price at the end of Day 2

Now, we combine the outcomes of Day 1 and Day 2 to find the overall expected share price at the end of Day 2: [ \text{Overall Expected Price} = 0.6 \times 712

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Expected Value
Percentage Increase/Decrease

Formulas

Expected Value Formula: E(X) = Σ [P(x) * x]
Percentage Increase Formula: New Price = Old Price * (1 + Percentage Increase)
Percentage Decrease Formula: New Price = Old Price * (1 - Percentage Decrease)

Theorems

Law of Total Expectation (used for calculating the overall expected value)

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12