Math Problem Statement
A share of a company costs Rs 500 500 today. Suppose today's share price increases by 50 % with probability 0.6 0.6 and decreases by 50 % with probability 0.4 0.4.Independent of today, suppose that tomorrow's share price increases by 20% with probability 0.5 0.5, and decreases by 30% with probability 0.5 0.5. If you decide to buy 3 3 shares today, find the expected profit (in Rs) at the end of 2 days
Solution
To find the expected profit, we'll calculate the expected value of the stock price after 2 days and compare it to the initial investment.
Step 1: Initial investment
The cost of 3 shares today is:
Step 2: Share price at the end of Day 1
Let the share price increase by 50% with probability 0.6 or decrease by 50% with probability 0.4. After Day 1, the possible outcomes for the share price are:
- Increase by 50%: New price =
- Decrease by 50%: New price =
The expected share price at the end of Day 1 is:
Step 3: Share price at the end of Day 2
Independent of Day 1, the share price on Day 2 can increase by 20% or decrease by 30%, both with probability 0.5. So, we need to calculate the expected share price for both possible outcomes of Day 1.
Case 1: Price after Day 1 is 750 Rs
- Increase by 20%: New price =
- Decrease by 30%: New price =
Expected share price if Day 1 ends with 750 Rs:
Case 2: Price after Day 1 is 250 Rs
- Increase by 20%: New price =
- Decrease by 30%: New price =
Expected share price if Day 1 ends with 250 Rs:
Step 4: Overall expected price at the end of Day 2
Now, we combine the outcomes of Day 1 and Day 2 to find the overall expected share price at the end of Day 2: [ \text{Overall Expected Price} = 0.6 \times 712
Ask a new question for Free
By Image
Drop file here or Click Here to upload
Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Expected Value
Percentage Increase/Decrease
Formulas
Expected Value Formula: E(X) = Σ [P(x) * x]
Percentage Increase Formula: New Price = Old Price * (1 + Percentage Increase)
Percentage Decrease Formula: New Price = Old Price * (1 - Percentage Decrease)
Theorems
Law of Total Expectation (used for calculating the overall expected value)
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
Related Recommendation
Expected Profit Calculation for Four Startup Investments
Calculate Expected Profit with Probability of Success and Loss
Calculate Expected Rate of Return Based on Economic Conditions
Expected Value and Profit Calculation for Insurance Policies
Expected Value and Revenue Calculation for Carolina Industries' Product Demand