Math Problem Statement

A contractor is considering a project that promises a profit of $38,884 with a probability of 0.62. The contractor would lose (due to bad weather, strikes, and such) of $3,668 if the project fails. What is the expected profit? Round to the nearest cent. A contractor is considering a project that promises a profit of $38,884 with a probability of 0.62. The contractor would lose (due to bad weather, strikes, and such) of $3,668 if the project fails. What is the expected profit? Round to the nearest cent.

Solution

To find the expected profit, we need to use the formula for expected value:

Expected Profit=(Psuccess×Profit)+(Pfailure×Loss)\text{Expected Profit} = (P_{\text{success}} \times \text{Profit}) + (P_{\text{failure}} \times \text{Loss})

Where:

  • Psuccess=0.62P_{\text{success}} = 0.62 is the probability of success.
  • Profit=38,884\text{Profit} = 38,884 is the profit if the project is successful.
  • Pfailure=1Psuccess=0.38P_{\text{failure}} = 1 - P_{\text{success}} = 0.38 is the probability of failure.
  • Loss=3,668\text{Loss} = -3,668 is the loss if the project fails (since it's a negative amount).

Step-by-step Calculation:

  1. Profit if successful: 0.62×38,884=24,107.280.62 \times 38,884 = 24,107.28

  2. Loss if failed: 0.38×(3,668)=1,393.840.38 \times (-3,668) = -1,393.84

  3. Expected profit: Expected Profit=24,107.281,393.84=22,713.44\text{Expected Profit} = 24,107.28 - 1,393.84 = 22,713.44

Thus, the expected profit is $22,713.44.

Would you like further details or have any other questions?

Here are 5 related questions for further exploration:

  1. What would the expected profit be if the success probability changes to 0.75?
  2. How would the expected profit change if the loss increases to $5,000?
  3. What is the minimum success probability required for the project to break even?
  4. How does the magnitude of loss impact the riskiness of a project?
  5. Can you calculate the variance of the project's profit?

Tip: In decision-making scenarios, the expected profit gives an average estimate but doesn't account for the risk (variance), so it's often helpful to consider both expected value and risk.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Expected Value
Decision Making

Formulas

Expected Value = (P_success * Profit) + (P_failure * Loss)
P_failure = 1 - P_success

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12