Math Problem Statement
A contractor is considering a project that promises a profit of $38,884 with a probability of 0.62. The contractor would lose (due to bad weather, strikes, and such) of $3,668 if the project fails. What is the expected profit? Round to the nearest cent. A contractor is considering a project that promises a profit of $38,884 with a probability of 0.62. The contractor would lose (due to bad weather, strikes, and such) of $3,668 if the project fails. What is the expected profit? Round to the nearest cent.
Solution
To find the expected profit, we need to use the formula for expected value:
Where:
- is the probability of success.
- is the profit if the project is successful.
- is the probability of failure.
- is the loss if the project fails (since it's a negative amount).
Step-by-step Calculation:
-
Profit if successful:
-
Loss if failed:
-
Expected profit:
Thus, the expected profit is $22,713.44.
Would you like further details or have any other questions?
Here are 5 related questions for further exploration:
- What would the expected profit be if the success probability changes to 0.75?
- How would the expected profit change if the loss increases to $5,000?
- What is the minimum success probability required for the project to break even?
- How does the magnitude of loss impact the riskiness of a project?
- Can you calculate the variance of the project's profit?
Tip: In decision-making scenarios, the expected profit gives an average estimate but doesn't account for the risk (variance), so it's often helpful to consider both expected value and risk.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Expected Value
Decision Making
Formulas
Expected Value = (P_success * Profit) + (P_failure * Loss)
P_failure = 1 - P_success
Theorems
-
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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