Math Problem Statement

A country is divided into four regions (A, B, C, and D). It is found that each year 55% of the residents in A move to B, 15% move to C, and 25% move to D. Of the residents in B, 45% move to C, 20% move to D, and 15% move to A. The residents of C will either stay where they are or move to A with equal probability. In D, 65% move to A, 15% move to C, and 10% stay in D. Suppose we model this system by \( x_{k+1} = M x_k \), where the vector \( x_k \) gives the populations in regions A, B, C, D respectively after k years. Determine the matrix \( M \).

Solution

To determine the matrix MM, let's analyze the movement of residents among the four regions AA, BB, CC, and DD, based on the given probabilities:

  1. Region A:

    • 55% move to BB, so the probability of moving from AA to BB is 0.550.55.
    • 15% move to CC, so the probability of moving from AA to CC is 0.150.15.
    • 25% move to DD, so the probability of moving from AA to DD is 0.250.25.
    • The probability of staying in AA itself is 00 (since all residents are moving to other regions).
  2. Region B:

    • 45% move to CC, so the probability of moving from BB to CC is 0.450.45.
    • 20% move to DD, so the probability of moving from BB to DD is 0.200.20.
    • 15% move to AA, so the probability of moving from BB to AA is 0.150.15.
    • The probability of staying in BB itself is 0.200.20 (the remaining percentage).
  3. Region C:

    • Residents in CC either stay in CC or move to AA with equal probability.
    • This means there’s a 50% probability of staying in CC, so PCC=0.5P_{CC} = 0.5.
    • The probability of moving from CC to AA is also 0.50.5, so PCA=0.5P_{CA} = 0.5.
    • No residents move from CC to BB or DD, so PCB=0P_{CB} = 0 and PCD=0P_{CD} = 0.
  4. Region D:

    • 65% move to AA, so PDA=0.65P_{DA} = 0.65.
    • 15% move to CC, so PDC=0.15P_{DC} = 0.15.
    • 10% stay in DD, so PDD=0.10P_{DD} = 0.10.
    • The probability of moving from DD to BB is 0.100.10, so PDB=0.10P_{DB} = 0.10.

Forming the Matrix MM

The matrix MM will be a 4×44 \times 4 matrix where each entry MijM_{ij} represents the probability of moving from region jj to region ii.

0 & 0.15 & 0.5 & 0.65 \\ 0.55 & 0.2 & 0 & 0.1 \\ 0.15 & 0.45 & 0.5 & 0.15 \\ 0.25 & 0.2 & 0 & 0.1 \\ \end{bmatrix}$$ This matrix reflects the transition probabilities from one year to the next for each region. Would you like further details on how these probabilities were used in forming the matrix, or do you have any other questions? ### Related Questions 1. How do we determine the long-term distribution of the population across these regions? 2. How can we verify that $$M$$ is a stochastic matrix? 3. How can we calculate $$\mathbf{x}_{k+1}$$ if given an initial population distribution $$\mathbf{x}_0$$? 4. What would change in the matrix $$M$$ if additional regions were added? 5. How does the Markov property apply to this population model? ### Tip In Markov chain problems, ensure each column in the transition matrix sums to 1, as it represents total probability from one state to another.

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Markov Chains
Probability Matrices
Linear Algebra

Formulas

Transition matrix M in Markov Chains
Population transition x_{k+1} = M x_k

Theorems

Markov Property

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College-level