Math Problem Statement
A country is divided into four regions (A, B, C, and D). It is found that each year 55% of the residents in A move to B, 15% move to C, and 25% move to D. Of the residents in B, 45% move to C, 20% move to D, and 15% move to A. The residents of C will either stay where they are or move to A with equal probability. In D, 65% move to A, 15% move to C, and 10% stay in D. Suppose we model this system by \( x_{k+1} = M x_k \), where the vector \( x_k \) gives the populations in regions A, B, C, D respectively after k years. Determine the matrix \( M \).
Solution
To determine the matrix , let's analyze the movement of residents among the four regions , , , and , based on the given probabilities:
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Region A:
- 55% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- 15% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- 25% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- The probability of staying in itself is (since all residents are moving to other regions).
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Region B:
- 45% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- 20% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- 15% move to , so the probability of moving from to is .
- The probability of staying in itself is (the remaining percentage).
-
Region C:
- Residents in either stay in or move to with equal probability.
- This means there’s a 50% probability of staying in , so .
- The probability of moving from to is also , so .
- No residents move from to or , so and .
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Region D:
- 65% move to , so .
- 15% move to , so .
- 10% stay in , so .
- The probability of moving from to is , so .
Forming the Matrix
The matrix will be a matrix where each entry represents the probability of moving from region to region .
0 & 0.15 & 0.5 & 0.65 \\ 0.55 & 0.2 & 0 & 0.1 \\ 0.15 & 0.45 & 0.5 & 0.15 \\ 0.25 & 0.2 & 0 & 0.1 \\ \end{bmatrix}$$ This matrix reflects the transition probabilities from one year to the next for each region. Would you like further details on how these probabilities were used in forming the matrix, or do you have any other questions? ### Related Questions 1. How do we determine the long-term distribution of the population across these regions? 2. How can we verify that $$M$$ is a stochastic matrix? 3. How can we calculate $$\mathbf{x}_{k+1}$$ if given an initial population distribution $$\mathbf{x}_0$$? 4. What would change in the matrix $$M$$ if additional regions were added? 5. How does the Markov property apply to this population model? ### Tip In Markov chain problems, ensure each column in the transition matrix sums to 1, as it represents total probability from one state to another.Ask a new question for Free
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Markov Chains
Probability Matrices
Linear Algebra
Formulas
Transition matrix M in Markov Chains
Population transition x_{k+1} = M x_k
Theorems
Markov Property
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12, College-level