Math Problem Statement

Duncan is investigating if residents of a city support the construction of a new high school. He's curious about the difference of opinion between residents in the North and South parts of the city. He obtained separate random samples of residents from each region. Here are the results: Supports construction? North South Yes [54] [77] No [66] [63] Total [120] [140] Duncan wants to use these results to construct a [90%] confidence interval to estimate the difference in the proportion of residents in these regions who support the construction project [(p_\text{S}-p_\text{N})]. Assume that all of the conditions for inference have been met. Which of the following is a correct [90%] confidence interval based on Duncan's samples? Choose 1 answer: Choose 1 answer: (Choice A)
[(-0.059,0.259)] A [(-0.059,0.259)] (Choice B)
[(-0.021,0.221)] B [(-0.021,0.221)] (Choice C)
[(-0.002,0.202)] C [(-0.002,0.202)] (Choice D)
[(0.038,0.162)] D [(0.038,0.162)]

Solution

We are tasked with constructing a 90% confidence interval for the difference in the proportion of residents in the North and South regions who support the construction of the new high school. Specifically, we want to estimate pSpNp_S - p_N, where:

  • pSp_S is the proportion of residents in the South who support the construction.
  • pNp_N is the proportion of residents in the North who support the construction.

Step 1: Calculate the sample proportions

  • Proportion in the North: pN=Yes in NorthTotal in North=54120=0.45p_\text{N} = \frac{\text{Yes in North}}{\text{Total in North}} = \frac{54}{120} = 0.45
  • Proportion in the South: pS=Yes in SouthTotal in South=771400.55p_\text{S} = \frac{\text{Yes in South}}{\text{Total in South}} = \frac{77}{140} \approx 0.55

Step 2: Calculate the standard error for the difference in proportions

The standard error (SE) for the difference in proportions is given by the formula: SE=pN(1pN)nN+pS(1pS)nSSE = \sqrt{\frac{p_\text{N}(1 - p_\text{N})}{n_\text{N}} + \frac{p_\text{S}(1 - p_\text{S})}{n_\text{S}}} where:

  • nN=120n_\text{N} = 120 (sample size for the North),
  • nS=140n_\text{S} = 140 (sample size for the South),
  • pN=0.45p_\text{N} = 0.45,
  • pS=0.55p_\text{S} = 0.55.

Substituting the values: SE=0.45(10.45)120+0.55(10.55)140=0.45×0.55120+0.55×0.45140SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.45(1 - 0.45)}{120} + \frac{0.55(1 - 0.55)}{140}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.45 \times 0.55}{120} + \frac{0.55 \times 0.45}{140}} SE=0.2475120+0.24751400.0020625+0.00176790.00383040.0619SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.2475}{120} + \frac{0.2475}{140}} \approx \sqrt{0.0020625 + 0.0017679} \approx \sqrt{0.0038304} \approx 0.0619

Step 3: Calculate the margin of error

For a 90% confidence interval, the critical value zz^* is approximately 1.645 (from the standard normal distribution).

The margin of error (ME) is: ME=z×SE=1.645×0.06190.1016ME = z^* \times SE = 1.645 \times 0.0619 \approx 0.1016

Step 4: Construct the confidence interval

The difference in sample proportions is: pSpN=0.550.45=0.10p_\text{S} - p_\text{N} = 0.55 - 0.45 = 0.10

The 90% confidence interval is: (pSpN)±ME=0.10±0.1016(p_\text{S} - p_\text{N}) \pm ME = 0.10 \pm 0.1016 This gives the interval: (0.100.1016,0.10+0.1016)=(0.0016,0.2016)(0.10 - 0.1016, 0.10 + 0.1016) = (-0.0016, 0.2016)

Step 5: Match with the answer choices

The closest interval to our calculation is: (0.002,0.202)(-0.002, 0.202)

Thus, the correct answer is: Choice C: (0.002,0.202)(-0.002, 0.202)

Do you have any questions or need further details on this calculation?

Here are 5 related questions:

  1. How does changing the confidence level (e.g., from 90% to 95%) affect the margin of error?
  2. What assumptions need to be checked when using confidence intervals for proportions?
  3. How do you calculate the sample size required for a given margin of error in a confidence interval for proportions?
  4. What is the interpretation of a confidence interval for the difference in proportions?
  5. How can you determine if there is a statistically significant difference between two proportions?

Tip: When constructing confidence intervals for differences in proportions, always double-check that the sample sizes are sufficiently large (usually npn \cdot p and n(1p)n \cdot (1 - p) should both be greater than 10) to ensure that the normal approximation is valid.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Confidence Intervals
Proportions
Statistics
Inference

Formulas

Sample Proportion p = Yes / Total
Standard Error for Difference of Proportions: SE = sqrt((p_N(1 - p_N) / n_N) + (p_S(1 - p_S) / n_S))
Margin of Error: ME = z* × SE

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem
Standard Normal Distribution for Confidence Intervals

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12