Math Problem Statement

Consider an estimator T(X), X= {X1,...,Xn}, for a parameter µ. From considering the continuous distribution of T(X), it is given that, P(3T(X) + µ>8) = 0.025 and P(−3T(X)−µ<−2) = 0.975. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for µ, given that you observe the esti- mate t(x) = 2.

Solution

We are given an estimator T(X)T(X) for a parameter μ\mu and two probability statements:

P(3T(X)+μ>8)=0.025P(3T(X) + \mu > 8) = 0.025

P(3T(X)μ<2)=0.975P(-3T(X) - \mu < -2) = 0.975

We need to determine the 95% confidence interval (CI) for μ\mu given that t(x)=2t(x) = 2.

Step 1: Express in Terms of Probability Quantiles

From the given probability statements:

  1. The first equation can be rewritten as:

    P(μ>83T(X))=0.025P\left( \mu > 8 - 3T(X) \right) = 0.025

    This suggests that the upper 2.5% quantile corresponds to 83T(X)8 - 3T(X).

  2. The second equation can be rewritten as:

    P(μ<2+3T(X))=0.975P\left( \mu < -2 + 3T(X) \right) = 0.975

    This suggests that the lower 2.5% quantile corresponds to 2+3T(X)-2 + 3T(X).

Thus, the 95% confidence interval is given by:

2+3T(X)μ83T(X)-2 + 3T(X) \leq \mu \leq 8 - 3T(X)

Step 2: Substitute t(x)=2t(x) = 2

Since we observe t(x)=2t(x) = 2, we substitute:

2+3(2)μ83(2)-2 + 3(2) \leq \mu \leq 8 - 3(2)

2+6μ86-2 + 6 \leq \mu \leq 8 - 6

4μ24 \leq \mu \leq 2

Step 3: Interpret and Correct the Interval

Since the usual notation for confidence intervals has the lower bound on the left, we rewrite:

2μ42 \leq \mu \leq 4

Thus, the 95% confidence interval for μ\mu is:

(2,4)(2,4)


Would you like a detailed explanation of any step?

Related Questions:

  1. How do confidence intervals relate to hypothesis testing?
  2. What is the role of quantiles in confidence interval construction?
  3. How can we interpret confidence intervals in real-world scenarios?
  4. What are the assumptions behind this confidence interval calculation?
  5. How would this change if T(X)T(X) had a known variance?

Tip: Confidence intervals do not guarantee that the true parameter lies within them for every sample—rather, 95% of similarly constructed intervals will contain the true parameter.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Estimation
Probability
Confidence Intervals
Quantiles
Continuous Distribution

Formulas

P(a < T(X) + µ < b) = 0.95
Confidence interval formula
P(3T(X) + µ > 8) = 0.025
P(-3T(X) - µ < -2) = 0.975

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem (implicitly referenced)
Probability distribution properties

Suitable Grade Level

Undergraduate (Statistics)