Math Problem Statement

An epidemic has an exponential growth rate (k) of 0.32 per annum. Assuming an initial infected population of 3, how long before 800 people are infected

Solution

To determine how long it will take for the infected population to grow from 3 to 800 people in an epidemic with an exponential growth rate, we can use the exponential growth formula:

P(t)=P0ektP(t) = P_0 e^{kt}

where:

  • P(t)P(t) is the population at time tt,
  • P0P_0 is the initial population,
  • kk is the growth rate,
  • tt is the time.

Given:

  • P0=3P_0 = 3,
  • P(t)=800P(t) = 800,
  • k=0.32k = 0.32 per annum.

We need to find tt. Start by plugging the given values into the formula:

800=3e0.32t800 = 3 e^{0.32t}

Next, solve for tt:

  1. Divide both sides by 3: 8003=e0.32t\frac{800}{3} = e^{0.32t}

  2. Simplify the fraction: 266.67=e0.32t266.67 = e^{0.32t}

  3. Take the natural logarithm of both sides to solve for tt: ln(266.67)=ln(e0.32t)\ln(266.67) = \ln(e^{0.32t})

  4. Use the property of logarithms that ln(ex)=x\ln(e^x) = x: ln(266.67)=0.32t\ln(266.67) = 0.32t

  5. Solve for tt: t=ln(266.67)0.32t = \frac{\ln(266.67)}{0.32}

  6. Calculate the natural logarithm and division: t5.5860.3217.46t \approx \frac{5.586}{0.32} \approx 17.46

Therefore, it will take approximately 17.46 years for the infected population to grow from 3 to 800 people.

Would you like more details or have any questions?

Here are some related questions:

  1. What is exponential growth and how is it different from linear growth?
  2. How does the growth rate (k) affect the time it takes for the population to reach a certain size?
  3. How can we determine the doubling time for an epidemic given the growth rate?
  4. What other factors might influence the spread of an epidemic in a real-world scenario?
  5. How can public health interventions impact the exponential growth rate of an epidemic?

Tip: Always check units when calculating exponential growth problems to ensure they are consistent (e.g., time units per annum).

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Exponential Growth

Formulas

Exponential growth formula P(t) = P0 * e^(kt)

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Advanced High School / College Level