Math Problem Statement

In a game, a player rolls a fair die 10 times. The probability of rolling a 4 on any single roll is 1/6. a) What is the probability that the player rolls exactly 3 fours in 10 rolls? b) What is the probability of getting fewer than 2 fours? Use the binomial distribution formula to calculate the probabilities.

Solution

In this problem, the player rolls a fair die 10 times. The probability of rolling a 4 on any single roll is 16\frac{1}{6}, and the probability of not rolling a 4 is 116=561 - \frac{1}{6} = \frac{5}{6}.

Since the situation follows a binomial distribution, we can use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probabilities. The binomial distribution is given by:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} Where:

  • nn = number of trials (rolls) = 10,
  • kk = number of successful outcomes (fours rolled),
  • pp = probability of a success (probability of rolling a 4) = 16\frac{1}{6},
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} = binomial coefficient (number of ways to choose kk successes from nn trials).

Part (a): Probability of rolling exactly 3 fours in 10 rolls

We need to calculate the probability of rolling exactly 3 fours in 10 rolls, i.e., P(X=3)P(X = 3).

P(X=3)=(103)(16)3(56)103P(X = 3) = \binom{10}{3} \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^3 \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{10-3}

First, calculate the binomial coefficient:

(103)=10!3!(103)!=10×9×83×2×1=120\binom{10}{3} = \frac{10!}{3!(10-3)!} = \frac{10 \times 9 \times 8}{3 \times 2 \times 1} = 120

Now, substitute the values:

P(X=3)=120×(16)3×(56)7P(X = 3) = 120 \times \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^3 \times \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^7 P(X=3)=120×1216×(56)7P(X = 3) = 120 \times \frac{1}{216} \times \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^7 P(X=3)120×1216×0.2791P(X = 3) \approx 120 \times \frac{1}{216} \times 0.2791 P(X=3)120×0.001292P(X = 3) \approx 120 \times 0.001292 P(X=3)0.1549P(X = 3) \approx 0.1549

So, the probability of rolling exactly 3 fours is approximately 0.1549.

Part (b): Probability of rolling fewer than 2 fours in 10 rolls

This is asking for the probability of rolling 0 or 1 fours in 10 rolls, i.e., P(X<2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1).

For P(X=0)P(X = 0):

P(X=0)=(100)(16)0(56)10=1×1×(56)10P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^0 \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{10} = 1 \times 1 \times \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{10} P(X=0)0.1615P(X = 0) \approx 0.1615

For P(X=1)P(X = 1):

P(X=1)=(101)(16)1(56)9P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} \left( \frac{1}{6} \right)^1 \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^{9} P(X=1)=10×16×(56)9P(X = 1) = 10 \times \frac{1}{6} \times \left( \frac{5}{6} \right)^9 P(X=1)10×0.1667×0.1938P(X = 1) \approx 10 \times 0.1667 \times 0.1938 P(X=1)0.323P(X = 1) \approx 0.323

Now, sum the probabilities:

P(X<2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)P(X < 2) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) P(X<2)0.1615+0.323P(X < 2) \approx 0.1615 + 0.323 P(X<2)0.4845P(X < 2) \approx 0.4845

So, the probability of rolling fewer than 2 fours is approximately 0.4845.


Summary of Results:

  • (a) The probability of rolling exactly 3 fours is approximately 0.1549.
  • (b) The probability of rolling fewer than 2 fours is approximately 0.4845.

Would you like more detailed explanations for any part of this solution, or do you have other questions?

Related Questions:

  1. How does changing the number of rolls (e.g., 5 or 20) affect the probability of rolling exactly 3 fours?
  2. What is the probability of rolling at least 1 four in 10 rolls?
  3. How can you compute the expected number of fours rolled in 10 rolls?
  4. What is the probability of rolling exactly 5 fours in 10 rolls?
  5. How does the binomial distribution apply to other real-world situations, such as flipping a coin multiple times?

Tip: Always remember that when using the binomial distribution, the number of trials nn, the probability of success pp, and the number of successes kk are key parameters in determining the probabilities.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution
Combinatorics

Formulas

Binomial probability formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
Binomial coefficient formula: C(n, k) = n! / (k! * (n - k)!)

Theorems

Binomial Distribution Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12