Math Problem Statement

The game of Yahtzee is played with five fair dice. The goal is to roll certain ‘hands’, such as Yahtzee (all five dice showing the same number) or a full house (three of a kind and two of a kind). In the first round of a player’s turn, the player rolls all five dice. Based on the outcome of that roll, the player has a second and third round, where he/she can then choose to re-roll any subset of the dice to get a desired hand. Suppose that, on the second round, the dice are {2, 3, 4, 6, 6}. You decide to re-roll both sixes in the third round. What is the probability that you roll either a small straight (exactly four dice are in a row) or a large straight (exactly five dice are in a row)? Round your answer to three decimal places.

Solution

To solve this problem, we need to calculate the probability of obtaining either a small straight or a large straight after re-rolling the two sixes. Let's break down the solution into parts:

1. Understanding the Goal

The goal is to roll a small straight or a large straight by re-rolling the two sixes. Here's what we know about the desired outcomes:

  • Small straight: A sequence of exactly four consecutive numbers, such as {1,2,3,4}\{1, 2, 3, 4\}, {2,3,4,5}\{2, 3, 4, 5\}, or {3,4,5,6}\{3, 4, 5, 6\}.
  • Large straight: A sequence of exactly five consecutive numbers, which can either be {1,2,3,4,5}\{1, 2, 3, 4, 5\} or {2,3,4,5,6}\{2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}.

2. Initial Setup

The initial roll was {2,3,4,6,6}\{2, 3, 4, 6, 6\}, and we are re-rolling the two sixes in the hope of achieving a straight.

When we re-roll the two sixes, each die has six possible outcomes (1 through 6). So, there are a total of 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36 possible outcomes for these two dice.

3. Counting Favorable Outcomes

Now, we need to determine how many of these 36 possible outcomes will result in either a small straight or a large straight. Let's consider each type of straight:

Case A: Small Straight

To achieve a small straight, we need exactly four dice in sequence. Since the original set includes {2,3,4}\{2, 3, 4\}, we need one of the new rolls to fit with this sequence to form a small straight. The following are the possible sequences and corresponding rolls for small straights:

  1. Sequence {1,2,3,4}\{1, 2, 3, 4\}: We need at least one of the new dice to roll a 1.
  2. Sequence {2,3,4,5}\{2, 3, 4, 5\}: We need at least one of the new dice to roll a 5.
  3. Sequence {3,4,5,6}\{3, 4, 5, 6\}: We need at least one of the new dice to roll a 5 or 6.

Let’s calculate the probability for each case.

  1. Probability of getting at least one 1 or one 5 in two rolls:
    • Probability of NOT rolling a 1 or 5 on a single roll: 46=23\frac{4}{6} = \frac{2}{3}
    • Probability of not rolling a

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Combinatorics

Formulas

Probability of desired outcomes / Total possible outcomes

Theorems

Basic Probability Theory

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12