Math Problem Statement

Please solve

Solution

To solve the logistic model problem, we need to determine the parameters cc, aa, and bb using the given data.

The logistic model is given by: P(t)=c1+aebtP(t) = \frac{c}{1 + ae^{-bt}}

Step-by-Step Solution:

  1. Identify the carrying capacity cc:

    • The total predicted population to get flu: 7500
    • Therefore, c=7500c = 7500
  2. Set up the initial conditions:

    • Initial number of cases at t=0t = 0 is 50.
    • One week (7 days) later, t=7t = 7, the number of cases is 200.

Using the initial condition at t=0t = 0: P(0)=c1+ae0=c1+aP(0) = \frac{c}{1 + ae^{0}} = \frac{c}{1 + a} 50=75001+a50 = \frac{7500}{1 + a} 1+a=7500501 + a = \frac{7500}{50} 1+a=1501 + a = 150 a=149a = 149

  1. Use the second condition to find bb: P(7)=75001+149e7b=200P(7) = \frac{7500}{1 + 149e^{-7b}} = 200 200=75001+149e7b200 = \frac{7500}{1 + 149e^{-7b}} 1+149e7b=75002001 + 149e^{-7b} = \frac{7500}{200} 1+149e7b=37.51 + 149e^{-7b} = 37.5 149e7b=36.5149e^{-7b} = 36.5 e7b=36.5149e^{-7b} = \frac{36.5}{149} e7b=0.245e^{-7b} = 0.245 7b=ln(0.245)-7b = \ln(0.245) b=ln(0.245)7b = -\frac{\ln(0.245)}{7} b0.188b \approx 0.188

Results:

  • c=7500c = 7500
  • a=149a = 149
  • b0.188b \approx 0.188

Summary:

The logistic model is: P(t)=75001+149e0.188tP(t) = \frac{7500}{1 + 149e^{-0.188t}}

Would you like any further details or have any questions?

Here are 5 questions you might be interested in asking next:

  1. Can you explain how to solve another type of logistic growth problem?
  2. How do you solve exponential growth problems?
  3. What is the difference between logistic and exponential growth?
  4. Can you help me with a problem involving differential equations?
  5. How do you solve problems involving decay models?

Tip: When solving logistic models, always ensure you accurately identify the initial conditions and carrying capacity, as these are critical for finding the correct parameters.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Logistic Growth
Exponential Functions
Initial Value Problems

Formulas

Logistic Model Formula: P(t) = c / (1 + ae^(-bt))

Theorems

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Suitable Grade Level

Advanced High School and Above