Math Problem Statement

Solve

A poll for a statewide election requires an error of estimation E = 3.54%. The voter count to be sampled for 90% confidence is n = ?

Solution

To solve this problem, we need to calculate the required sample size nn for estimating the voter population proportion with a specified margin of error EE and confidence level.

Here's the information provided:

  • Margin of error E=3.54%=0.0354E = 3.54\% = 0.0354
  • Confidence level = 90%
  • Corresponding zz-value for 90% confidence = 1.645

The sample size formula for estimating a population proportion is:

n=(zE)2×p×(1p)n = \left( \frac{z}{E} \right)^2 \times p \times (1 - p)

where:

  • zz is the critical value for the desired confidence level,
  • EE is the margin of error,
  • pp is the estimated population proportion.

If pp is unknown, we often use p=0.5p = 0.5 for maximum variability (which maximizes p(1p)p(1 - p)).

Step 1: Plugging in values

Assuming p=0.5p = 0.5 (since it's not provided):

n=(1.6450.0354)2×0.5×(10.5)n = \left( \frac{1.645}{0.0354} \right)^2 \times 0.5 \times (1 - 0.5)

Step 2: Calculate the sample size

  1. Calculate 1.6450.0354\frac{1.645}{0.0354}: 1.6450.035446.46\frac{1.645}{0.0354} \approx 46.46

  2. Square that result: 46.4622159.8746.46^2 \approx 2159.87

  3. Multiply by 0.5×0.5=0.250.5 \times 0.5 = 0.25: n2159.87×0.25=539.97n \approx 2159.87 \times 0.25 = 539.97

Conclusion

Rounding up, the required sample size nn is approximately 540.

Would you like more details on this calculation or have any questions?

Here are some related questions to consider:

  1. How would the sample size change if we used a 95% confidence level instead?
  2. What if the margin of error EE was reduced to 2%?
  3. How does changing the estimated population proportion pp impact nn?
  4. Why is p=0.5p = 0.5 used when the true proportion is unknown?
  5. What assumptions underlie the use of a normal distribution for this calculation?

Tip: Using a higher confidence level or a smaller margin of error generally requires a larger sample size.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Statistics
Confidence Intervals
Population Proportion
Sample Size Calculation

Formulas

Sample size formula for estimating population proportion: n = (z / E)^2 * p * (1 - p)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem (used for approximation in large sample sizes)

Suitable Grade Level

College-level Statistics or Advanced High School