Math Problem Statement

Annual high temperatures in a certain location have been tracked for several years. Let X represent the year and Y the high temperature. Based on the data shown below, calculate the regression line (each value to two decimal places).

y = x +

x y 4 33.3 5 34.4 6 29.2 7 27.1 8 25.9 9 25.6 10 20.3 11 19.4

Solution

To find the regression line for the given data, we need to use the formula for the least squares regression line:

y=mx+by = mx + b

Where:

  • mm is the slope of the line, and
  • bb is the y-intercept.

Step 1: Calculate the necessary sums

We need the following sums:

  1. x\sum x
  2. y\sum y
  3. x2\sum x^2
  4. xy\sum xy

Let's compute these:

x=[4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11]x = [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11] y=[33.3,34.4,29.2,27.1,25.9,25.6,20.3,19.4]y = [33.3, 34.4, 29.2, 27.1, 25.9, 25.6, 20.3, 19.4]

Step 2: Calculate the sums

I'll calculate the sums of xx, yy, x2x^2, and xyxy first.

x=4+5+6+7+8+9+10+11=60\sum x = 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10 + 11 = 60 y=33.3+34.4+29.2+27.1+25.9+25.6+20.3+19.4=195.2\sum y = 33.3 + 34.4 + 29.2 + 27.1 + 25.9 + 25.6 + 20.3 + 19.4 = 195.2 x2=42+52+62+72+82+92+102+112=16+25+36+49+64+81+100+121=492\sum x^2 = 4^2 + 5^2 + 6^2 + 7^2 + 8^2 + 9^2 + 10^2 + 11^2 = 16 + 25 + 36 + 49 + 64 + 81 + 100 + 121 = 492 xy=(4×33.3)+(5×34.4)+(6×29.2)+(7×27.1)+(8×25.9)+(9×25.6)+(10×20.3)+(11×19.4)\sum xy = (4 \times 33.3) + (5 \times 34.4) + (6 \times 29.2) + (7 \times 27.1) + (8 \times 25.9) + (9 \times 25.6) + (10 \times 20.3) + (11 \times 19.4) xy=133.2+172+175.2+189.7+207.2+230.4+203+213.4=1524.1\sum xy = 133.2 + 172 + 175.2 + 189.7 + 207.2 + 230.4 + 203 + 213.4 = 1524.1

Step 3: Use the formulas for the slope mm and intercept bb

The formulas for the slope mm and the intercept bb are:

m=nxy(x)(y)nx2(x)2m = \frac{n \sum xy - (\sum x)(\sum y)}{n \sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2}

b=ymxnb = \frac{\sum y - m \sum x}{n}

Where:

  • n=8n = 8 (the number of data points).

Calculate the slope mm:

m=8×1524.1(60×195.2)8×492602m = \frac{8 \times 1524.1 - (60 \times 195.2)}{8 \times 492 - 60^2} m=12192.81171239363600m = \frac{12192.8 - 11712}{3936 - 3600} m=480.8336m = \frac{480.8}{336} m=1.43m = 1.43

Calculate the intercept bb:

b=195.21.43×608b = \frac{195.2 - 1.43 \times 60}{8} b=195.285.88b = \frac{195.2 - 85.8}{8} b=109.48b = \frac{109.4}{8} b=13.68b = 13.68

Final Regression Equation:

y=1.43x+13.68y = 1.43x + 13.68

So the regression line is:

y=1.43x+13.68y = 1.43x + 13.68

Let me know if you'd like further details or clarification on any step!


Related Questions:

  1. How would the regression line change if the data were normalized?
  2. What is the interpretation of the slope and intercept in the context of the data?
  3. How can the coefficient of determination (R-squared) be computed for this regression?
  4. What other methods can be used to assess the accuracy of the regression model?
  5. How would you predict the temperature for a year, say 12, using this model?

Tip: When performing linear regression, always check the residuals (the differences between observed and predicted values) to ensure that the model fits the data well!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Linear Regression
Statistics
Algebra

Formulas

y = mx + b
m = (nΣxy - (Σx)(Σy)) / (nΣx² - (Σx)²)
b = (Σy - mΣx) / n

Theorems

Least Squares Method
Linear Regression Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12