Math Problem Statement

Pollsters are concerned about declining levels of cooperation among persons contacted in surveys. A pollster contacts 88 people in the 18-21 age bracket and finds that 75 of them respond and 13 refuse to respond. When 275 people in the 22-29 age bracket are contacted, 248 respond and 27 refuse to respond.

Assume that 1 of the 363 people is randomly selected. Find the probability of getting someone in the 18-21 age bracket or someone who agreed to respond.

Report the answer as a percent rounded to one decimal place accuracy. You need not enter the "%" symbol.

P(18-21 or agreed) =

%

(Hint: It might be helpful to organize the data into a table first.)

Solution

Let's organize the data into a table for clarity:

Age BracketRespondedRefusedTotal
18-21751388
22-2924827275
Total32340363

Given Information:

  • The total number of people contacted is 363.
  • We need to find the probability of selecting someone who is either:
    1. In the 18-21 age bracket, or
    2. Agreed to respond (from either age group).

This requires the union of two events:

  • Event A: Person is in the 18-21 age bracket (88 people).
  • Event B: Person agreed to respond (323 people).

Step 1: Find the total probability for the union of events.

Using the formula for the union of two events:

P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

  • P(A)P(A) is the probability of selecting someone in the 18-21 age bracket: P(A)=88363P(A) = \frac{88}{363}

  • P(B)P(B) is the probability of selecting someone who agreed to respond: P(B)=323363P(B) = \frac{323}{363}

  • P(AB)P(A \cap B) is the probability of selecting someone who is in the 18-21 age bracket and agreed to respond: P(AB)=75363P(A \cap B) = \frac{75}{363}

Step 2: Substitute the values into the formula.

P(AB)=88363+32336375363P(A \cup B) = \frac{88}{363} + \frac{323}{363} - \frac{75}{363}

P(AB)=88+32375363=336363P(A \cup B) = \frac{88 + 323 - 75}{363} = \frac{336}{363}

Step 3: Convert the probability to a percentage.

P(AB)=3363630.9256P(A \cup B) = \frac{336}{363} \approx 0.9256 As a percentage, this is: P(AB)92.6%P(A \cup B) \approx 92.6\%

Thus, the probability of selecting someone in the 18-21 age bracket or someone who agreed to respond is 92.6%.


Would you like any further details or clarification?

Related Questions:

  1. What is the probability of selecting someone in the 22-29 age bracket?
  2. What is the probability of selecting someone who refused to respond?
  3. What is the probability of selecting someone in the 18-21 age bracket who refused to respond?
  4. How does the probability change if the number of respondents in the 22-29 age bracket increases by 10%?
  5. What if the probability of refusal increased by 5% in each age bracket? How would the results change?

Tip:

When calculating the probability of a union of two events, don't forget to subtract the overlap (intersection) to avoid double-counting.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Set Theory
Union of Events

Formulas

P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)
Basic probability formula: P(Event) = favorable outcomes / total outcomes

Theorems

The Addition Rule of Probability

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 9-12