Math Problem Statement

Có 10 hộp đựng sản phẩm giống nhau, trong đó gồm 7 hộp loại 1, 3 hộp loại 2. Hộp loại 1 có 7 chính phẩm và 3 phế phẩm, hộp loại 2 có 8 chính phẩm và 2 phế phẩm. Chọn ngẫu nhiên 1 hộp và từ đó lấy ra 2 sản phẩm. a) Tìm xác suất để 2 sản phẩm lấy đều là chính phẩm. b) Biết 2 sản phẩm lấy ra trên đều là chính phẩm. Tìm xác suất để hộp loại 2 được chọn ra.

Solution

This problem is about probability involving two types of boxes. Here's a breakdown of the given situation:

There are 10 boxes containing products:

  • 7 boxes are of type 1, with 7 high-quality items (chính phẩm) and 3 defective items (phế phẩm).
  • 3 boxes are of type 2, with 8 high-quality items and 2 defective items.

You are asked two questions:

Part (a)

You randomly choose 1 box and draw 2 items from that box. What is the probability that both items are high-quality?

Part (b)

Given that the two items drawn are both high-quality, what is the probability that the selected box was of type 2?


Let's start solving this step-by-step.

Part (a)

Step 1: Probability of selecting a type 1 or type 2 box

  • Probability of choosing a type 1 box: P(type 1)=710P(\text{type 1}) = \frac{7}{10}
  • Probability of choosing a type 2 box: P(type 2)=310P(\text{type 2}) = \frac{3}{10}

Step 2: Probability of drawing 2 high-quality items from each type of box

  1. Type 1 box: The probability of drawing 2 high-quality items from a type 1 box (7 high-quality and 3 defective items): P(2 high-quality | type 1)=(72)(102)=7×6210×92=4290=715P(\text{2 high-quality | type 1}) = \frac{\binom{7}{2}}{\binom{10}{2}} = \frac{\frac{7 \times 6}{2}}{\frac{10 \times 9}{2}} = \frac{42}{90} = \frac{7}{15}

  2. Type 2 box: The probability of drawing 2 high-quality items from a type 2 box (8 high-quality and 2 defective items): P(2 high-quality | type 2)=(82)(102)=8×7210×92=5690=2845P(\text{2 high-quality | type 2}) = \frac{\binom{8}{2}}{\binom{10}{2}} = \frac{\frac{8 \times 7}{2}}{\frac{10 \times 9}{2}} = \frac{56}{90} = \frac{28}{45}

Step 3: Total probability of drawing 2 high-quality items

Using the law of total probability, the overall probability of drawing 2 high-quality items is: P(2 high-quality)=P(type 1)×P(2 high-quality | type 1)+P(type 2)×P(2 high-quality | type 2)P(\text{2 high-quality}) = P(\text{type 1}) \times P(\text{2 high-quality | type 1}) + P(\text{type 2}) \times P(\text{2 high-quality | type 2}) Substitute the values: P(2 high-quality)=710×715+310×2845P(\text{2 high-quality}) = \frac{7}{10} \times \frac{7}{15} + \frac{3}{10} \times \frac{28}{45} Simplifying: P(2 high-quality)=49150+84450=49150+28150=77150P(\text{2 high-quality}) = \frac{49}{150} + \frac{84}{450} = \frac{49}{150} + \frac{28}{150} = \frac{77}{150}

So, the probability that both items are high-quality is 77150\frac{77}{150}.


Part (b)

Given that both drawn items are high-quality, find the probability that the selected box was of type 2. We use Bayes' Theorem for this:

P(type 2 | 2 high-quality)=P(2 high-quality | type 2)×P(type 2)P(2 high-quality)P(\text{type 2 | 2 high-quality}) = \frac{P(\text{2 high-quality | type 2}) \times P(\text{type 2})}{P(\text{2 high-quality})} Substitute the known values: P(type 2 | 2 high-quality)=2845×31077150=8445077150=84450×15077=2877P(\text{type 2 | 2 high-quality}) = \frac{\frac{28}{45} \times \frac{3}{10}}{\frac{77}{150}} = \frac{\frac{84}{450}}{\frac{77}{150}} = \frac{84}{450} \times \frac{150}{77} = \frac{28}{77}

Thus, the probability that the box is of type 2, given that both drawn items are high-quality, is 2877\frac{28}{77}.


Would you like more details or explanations on any part of this solution? Here are some additional related questions:

  1. What is the probability of drawing at least one defective item?
  2. How would the result change if there were 9 high-quality items and 1 defective item in type 2 boxes?
  3. What is the conditional probability of drawing two defective items from a type 1 box?
  4. Can the probability that the items are high-quality be generalized for different numbers of high-quality and defective items?
  5. What would happen if the number of type 1 and type 2 boxes changed?

Tip: When dealing with conditional probability, Bayes' Theorem is your go-to tool!

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem

Formulas

P(type 1) = 7/10
P(type 2) = 3/10
P(2 high-quality | type 1) = (7C2) / (10C2)
P(2 high-quality | type 2) = (8C2) / (10C2)
Bayes' Theorem: P(type 2 | 2 high-quality) = [P(2 high-quality | type 2) * P(type 2)] / P(2 high-quality)

Theorems

Bayes' Theorem
Law of Total Probability

Suitable Grade Level

High School (Grades 10-12)