Math Problem Statement
Solution
This problem deals with conditional probability. Let's analyze and solve it step by step.
Given Information:
- Three boxes:
- Box 1: 1 white, 2 red, 3 black balls.
- Box 2: 2 white, 3 red, 1 black ball.
- Box 3: 3 white, 1 red, 2 black balls.
- A box is chosen at random, so the probability of choosing any one box is:
- Two balls are drawn at random, and it is observed that the two balls are 1 red and 1 white.
- We need to find the probability that the two balls came from Box 2.
Step 1: Total Outcomes for Each Box
Box 1:
- Total balls = .
- Total ways to pick 2 balls = .
- Favorable outcomes for 1 red and 1 white:
- white ball and red balls are available.
- Ways to pick:
- Probability of drawing 1 red and 1 white from Box 1:
Box 2:
- Total balls = .
- Total ways to pick 2 balls = .
- Favorable outcomes for 1 red and 1 white:
- white balls and red balls are available.
- Ways to pick:
- Probability of drawing 1 red and 1 white from Box 2:
Box 3:
- Total balls = .
- Total ways to pick 2 balls = .
- Favorable outcomes for 1 red and 1 white:
- white balls and red ball are available.
- Ways to pick:
- Probability of drawing 1 red and 1 white from Box 3:
Step 2: Using Bayes' Theorem
We want . Using Bayes' theorem:
Numerator:
Denominator:
Final Probability:
Final Answer:
The probability that the two balls came from Box 2 is:
Do you want more details, or should I clarify any step?
Here are 5 related questions to explore:
- How would the probability change if the number of balls in Box 2 were different?
- What happens if we have more than 3 boxes with similar distributions?
- How does Bayes' theorem generalize to continuous cases in probability?
- How is the total probability rule used in solving such problems?
- What if three balls were drawn instead of two?
Tip: Bayes' theorem is especially useful for "reverse probability" problems, where you're given an outcome and need to find the likelihood of a specific cause.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Formulas
P(Box 2 | Event) = [P(Event | Box 2) * P(Box 2)] / Σ[P(Event | Box i) * P(Box i)]
Combination formula: C(n, r) = n! / (r!(n-r)!)
Theorems
Bayes' Theorem
Total Probability Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12
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