Math Problem Statement

A student takes a 20 question, multiple-choice exam with five choices for each question and guesses on each question. Find the probability of guessing at least 17 out of 20 correctly. Round your answer to three decimal places.

Solution

This problem involves a binomial probability distribution, as we have a fixed number of trials (20 questions), two possible outcomes (correct or incorrect), and the probability of success is constant for each trial.

Here are the steps to solve this:

Given:

  • Number of questions (nn) = 20
  • Probability of guessing correctly (pp) = 15\frac{1}{5} = 0.2
  • Probability of guessing incorrectly (qq) = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
  • We're interested in the probability of guessing at least 17 questions correctly, so we want P(X17)P(X \geq 17), where XX is the number of correct answers.

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pkqnkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \cdot p^k \cdot q^{n-k}

Where:

  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient n!k!(nk)!\frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!},
  • pkp^k is the probability of guessing kk questions correctly,
  • qnkq^{n-k} is the probability of guessing nkn-k questions incorrectly.

We are looking for P(X17)P(X \geq 17), which is the sum of probabilities for 17, 18, 19, and 20 correct answers:

P(X17)=P(X=17)+P(X=18)+P(X=19)+P(X=20)P(X \geq 17) = P(X = 17) + P(X = 18) + P(X = 19) + P(X = 20)

I will now calculate these probabilities.The probability of guessing at least 17 out of 20 questions correctly by pure guessing is extremely small—so small, in fact, that it rounds to 0 when computed to three decimal places.

This shows that achieving such a result by chance is practically impossible.

Would you like further details, or do you have any other questions?

Here are five related questions for further exploration:

  1. What is the probability of guessing exactly 16 questions correctly?
  2. How does the probability change if there are only four choices per question?
  3. What is the expected number of correct answers when guessing on a 20-question exam?
  4. How would the probability change if the student knew the correct answer for half the questions?
  5. Can we calculate the standard deviation for the number of correct guesses?

Tip: The binomial distribution is ideal for scenarios with fixed numbers of independent trials, each having the same probability of success.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

Binomial probability formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
Binomial coefficient: C(n, k) = n! / (k!(n - k)!)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12