Math Problem Statement
A student takes a 20 question, multiple-choice exam with five choices for each question and guesses on each question. Find the probability of guessing at least 17 out of 20 correctly. Round your answer to three decimal places.
Solution
This problem involves a binomial probability distribution, as we have a fixed number of trials (20 questions), two possible outcomes (correct or incorrect), and the probability of success is constant for each trial.
Here are the steps to solve this:
Given:
- Number of questions () = 20
- Probability of guessing correctly () = = 0.2
- Probability of guessing incorrectly () = 1 - 0.2 = 0.8
- We're interested in the probability of guessing at least 17 questions correctly, so we want , where is the number of correct answers.
The binomial probability formula is:
Where:
- is the binomial coefficient ,
- is the probability of guessing questions correctly,
- is the probability of guessing questions incorrectly.
We are looking for , which is the sum of probabilities for 17, 18, 19, and 20 correct answers:
I will now calculate these probabilities.The probability of guessing at least 17 out of 20 questions correctly by pure guessing is extremely small—so small, in fact, that it rounds to 0 when computed to three decimal places.
This shows that achieving such a result by chance is practically impossible.
Would you like further details, or do you have any other questions?
Here are five related questions for further exploration:
- What is the probability of guessing exactly 16 questions correctly?
- How does the probability change if there are only four choices per question?
- What is the expected number of correct answers when guessing on a 20-question exam?
- How would the probability change if the student knew the correct answer for half the questions?
- Can we calculate the standard deviation for the number of correct guesses?
Tip: The binomial distribution is ideal for scenarios with fixed numbers of independent trials, each having the same probability of success.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Probability
Binomial Distribution
Formulas
Binomial probability formula: P(X = k) = C(n, k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n - k)
Binomial coefficient: C(n, k) = n! / (k!(n - k)!)
Theorems
Binomial Theorem
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 10-12
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