Math Problem Statement

A computer maker receives parts from three suppliers, S1, S2, and S3. Fifty percent come from S1, twenty percent from S2, and thirty percent from S3. Among all the parts supplied by S1, 5% are defective. For S2 and S3, the portion of defective parts is 3% and 6%, respectively. What portion of all the parts is defective? A customer complains that a certain part in her recently purchased computer is defective. What is the probability that it was supplied by S1?

Solution

Let's break this problem into two parts:

Part 1: What portion of all the parts is defective?

We can solve this part using the law of total probability.

Define the following events:

  • DD: The event that a part is defective.
  • S1S_1: The event that a part comes from supplier S1S_1.
  • S2S_2: The event that a part comes from supplier S2S_2.
  • S3S_3: The event that a part comes from supplier S3S_3.

The problem provides the following information:

  • P(S1)=0.50P(S_1) = 0.50 (50% of parts come from S1S_1)
  • P(S2)=0.20P(S_2) = 0.20 (20% of parts come from S2S_2)
  • P(S3)=0.30P(S_3) = 0.30 (30% of parts come from S3S_3)

Also, the probability that a part is defective given that it came from each supplier:

  • P(DS1)=0.05P(D | S_1) = 0.05 (5% of S1S_1's parts are defective)
  • P(DS2)=0.03P(D | S_2) = 0.03 (3% of S2S_2's parts are defective)
  • P(DS3)=0.06P(D | S_3) = 0.06 (6% of S3S_3's parts are defective)

The total probability that a part is defective can be found using the law of total probability:

P(D)=P(DS1)P(S1)+P(DS2)P(S2)+P(DS3)P(S3)P(D) = P(D | S_1) \cdot P(S_1) + P(D | S_2) \cdot P(S_2) + P(D | S_3) \cdot P(S_3)

Now, substitute the values:

P(D)=(0.05×0.50)+(0.03×0.20)+(0.06×0.30)P(D) = (0.05 \times 0.50) + (0.03 \times 0.20) + (0.06 \times 0.30)

P(D)=0.025+0.006+0.018=0.049P(D) = 0.025 + 0.006 + 0.018 = 0.049

Thus, the total portion of defective parts is 4.9%.

Part 2: What is the probability that the defective part was supplied by S1S_1?

For this part, we can use Bayes' Theorem. We want to find P(S1D)P(S_1 | D), the probability that a defective part came from S1S_1, given that the part is defective.

Bayes' Theorem states:

P(S1D)=P(DS1)P(S1)P(D)P(S_1 | D) = \frac{P(D | S_1) \cdot P(S_1)}{P(D)}

We already know the following:

  • P(DS1)=0.05P(D | S_1) = 0.05
  • P(S1)=0.50P(S_1) = 0.50
  • P(D)=0.049P(D) = 0.049

Now substitute the values:

P(S1D)=0.05×0.500.049P(S_1 | D) = \frac{0.05 \times 0.50}{0.049}

P(S1D)=0.0250.0490.5102P(S_1 | D) = \frac{0.025}{0.049} \approx 0.5102

Thus, the probability that a defective part was supplied by S1S_1 is approximately 51.02%.

Summary:

  1. **The portion of all parts that are

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability
Bayes' Theorem
Law of Total Probability

Formulas

P(D) = P(D | S1) * P(S1) + P(D | S2) * P(S2) + P(D | S3) * P(S3)
Bayes' Theorem: P(S1 | D) = [P(D | S1) * P(S1)] / P(D)

Theorems

Law of Total Probability
Bayes' Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

College Level / Advanced High School (Grades 11-12)