Math Problem Statement

A student buys 1000 integrated circuits (ICs) from supplier A, 2000 ICs from supplier B, and 3000 ICs from supplier C. He tested the ICs and found that the conditional probability of an IC being defective depends on the supplier from whom it was bought. Specifically, given that an IC came from supplier A, the probability that it is defective is 0.05; given that an IC came from supplier B, the probability that it is defective is 0.10; and given that an IC came from supplier C, the probability that it is defective is 0.10. If the ICs from the three suppliers are mixed together and one is selected at random, what is the probability that it is defective?

Solution

This problem involves finding the probability of a randomly selected integrated circuit (IC) being defective, considering the total ICs purchased from different suppliers and their respective defect rates.

Let's solve step by step.

Step 1: Definitions

Let:

  • AA, BB, CC denote suppliers A, B, and C.
  • DD denote the event that an IC is defective.

We are given:

  • Probability that an IC comes from supplier AA:
    P(A)=10001000+2000+3000=10006000=16P(A) = \frac{1000}{1000 + 2000 + 3000} = \frac{1000}{6000} = \frac{1}{6},
  • Probability that an IC comes from supplier BB:
    P(B)=20006000=13P(B) = \frac{2000}{6000} = \frac{1}{3},
  • Probability that an IC comes from supplier CC:
    P(C)=30006000=12P(C) = \frac{3000}{6000} = \frac{1}{2}.

Defect probabilities for each supplier:

  • P(DA)=0.05P(D|A) = 0.05,
  • P(DB)=0.10P(D|B) = 0.10,
  • P(DC)=0.10P(D|C) = 0.10.

Step 2: Use the Law of Total Probability

The total probability of a defect P(D)P(D) is given by: P(D)=P(DA)P(A)+P(DB)P(B)+P(DC)P(C).P(D) = P(D|A)P(A) + P(D|B)P(B) + P(D|C)P(C).

Step 3: Substitute Values

Substituting the given values: P(D)=(0.05)(16)+(0.10)(13)+(0.10)(12).P(D) = (0.05)(\frac{1}{6}) + (0.10)(\frac{1}{3}) + (0.10)(\frac{1}{2}).

Step 4: Simplify

Evaluate each term:

  • (0.05)(16)=0.056=0.00833(0.05)(\frac{1}{6}) = \frac{0.05}{6} = 0.00833,
  • (0.10)(13)=0.103=0.03333(0.10)(\frac{1}{3}) = \frac{0.10}{3} = 0.03333,
  • (0.10)(12)=0.102=0.05(0.10)(\frac{1}{2}) = \frac{0.10}{2} = 0.05.

Add these probabilities: P(D)=0.00833+0.03333+0.05=0.09166.P(D) = 0.00833 + 0.03333 + 0.05 = 0.09166.

Final Answer:

The probability that a randomly selected IC is defective is approximately: P(D)0.0917(or 9.17%).P(D) \approx 0.0917 \, \text{(or 9.17\%)}.


Would you like a detailed explanation of any step?
Here are five related questions to explore further:

  1. How would the probability change if the defect rate for supplier CC were different?
  2. What is the probability that a defective IC came from supplier AA?
  3. Can we generalize this problem to more suppliers with similar data?
  4. How can we apply Bayes' theorem to this problem?
  5. What is the role of the law of total probability in solving such problems?

Tip: Always verify your probabilities add up to 1 when partitioning events across disjoint cases.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Conditional Probability
Law of Total Probability

Formulas

P(D) = P(D|A)P(A) + P(D|B)P(B) + P(D|C)P(C)

Theorems

Law of Total Probability

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12