Math Problem Statement

A certain consumer organization reports the number of major defects for each new automobile that it tests. Suppose that the number of such defects for a certain model is a random variable with mean 3.2 and standard deviation 2.4. Among 100 randomly selected cars of this model what is the probability that the average number of defects exceeds 4.

0.0004

0.0098

0.00755

0.0008

Clear selection

Solution

We are asked to find the probability that the average number of defects exceeds 4 among 100 randomly selected cars, given that the mean number of defects is μ=3.2\mu = 3.2 and the standard deviation is σ=2.4\sigma = 2.4.

Step-by-Step Solution:

  1. Determine the sampling distribution of the sample mean: The sample mean Xˉ\bar{X} of a random sample of size n=100n = 100 from a population with mean μ=3.2\mu = 3.2 and standard deviation σ=2.4\sigma = 2.4 is normally distributed (by the Central Limit Theorem) with:

    • Mean: μXˉ=μ=3.2\mu_{\bar{X}} = \mu = 3.2
    • Standard deviation (standard error): σXˉ=σn=2.4100=2.410=0.24\sigma_{\bar{X}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{2.4}{\sqrt{100}} = \frac{2.4}{10} = 0.24
  2. Set up the probability statement: We need to find the probability that the average number of defects exceeds 4: P(Xˉ>4)P(\bar{X} > 4)

  3. Standardize the value: To find this probability, we will standardize the value using the Z-score formula: Z=XˉμXˉσXˉ=43.20.24=0.80.243.33Z = \frac{\bar{X} - \mu_{\bar{X}}}{\sigma_{\bar{X}}} = \frac{4 - 3.2}{0.24} = \frac{0.8}{0.24} \approx 3.33

  4. Find the probability: We now find P(Z>3.33)P(Z > 3.33). Using standard normal distribution tables or a calculator: P(Z>3.33)0.0004P(Z > 3.33) \approx 0.0004

Thus, the probability that the average number of defects exceeds 4 is approximately 0.0004.

Final Answer:

The correct answer is 0.0004.


Do you want further details or have any questions?

Here are some related questions:

  1. What would the probability be if the sample size was 50 instead of 100?
  2. How does the Central Limit Theorem apply to this problem?
  3. What if the standard deviation of defects was higher, say 3.0, instead of 2.4?
  4. How would the probability change if we were looking for P(Xˉ>3.5)P(\bar{X} > 3.5)?
  5. What does a Z-score of 3.33 tell us about the likelihood of the event?

Tip: When dealing with the average of a large sample size, the Central Limit Theorem ensures that the distribution of the sample mean will approximate a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the original population distribution.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Sampling Distribution
Z-scores
Central Limit Theorem

Formulas

Standard Error: σ_X̄ = σ / √n
Z-score: Z = (X̄ - μ) / σ_X̄
Probability from Z-score: P(Z > z)

Theorems

Central Limit Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12, College Introductory Statistics