Math Problem Statement

A school newspaper reporter decides to randomly survey 10 students to see if they will attend Tet (Vietnamese New Year) festivities this year. Based on past years, she knows that 25% of students attend Tet festivities. We are interested in the number of students who will attend the festivities.

Find the probability that at most 3 students will attend. (Round your answer to four decimal places.)

Solution

This is a binomial probability problem because we have a fixed number of trials (10 students), two possible outcomes for each student (either they attend the Tet festivities or they don't), and the probability of success (attending) is constant (25% or 0.25).

The binomial probability formula is:

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1 - p)^{n-k}

Where:

  • nn is the number of trials (students surveyed, n=10n = 10)
  • kk is the number of successes (students attending)
  • pp is the probability of success (probability a student attends, p=0.25p = 0.25)
  • (nk)\binom{n}{k} is the binomial coefficient, which represents the number of ways to choose kk successes from nn trials

We are asked to find the probability that at most 3 students attend the festivities, which means we need to calculate the cumulative probability for X3X \leq 3. In other words:

P(X3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)P(X \leq 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)

Step-by-step calculation:

  1. For P(X=0)P(X = 0):

P(X=0)=(100)(0.25)0(0.75)10=1×1×0.0563=0.0563P(X = 0) = \binom{10}{0} (0.25)^0 (0.75)^{10} = 1 \times 1 \times 0.0563 = 0.0563

  1. For P(X=1)P(X = 1):

P(X=1)=(101)(0.25)1(0.75)9=10×0.25×0.1937=0.4843P(X = 1) = \binom{10}{1} (0.25)^1 (0.75)^9 = 10 \times 0.25 \times 0.1937 = 0.4843

  1. For P(X=2)P(X = 2):

P(X=2)=(102)(0.25)2(0.75)8=45×0.0625×0.2316=0.3258P(X = 2) = \binom{10}{2} (0.25)^2 (0.75)^8 = 45 \times 0.0625 \times 0.2316 = 0.3258

  1. For P(X=3)P(X = 3):

P(X=3)=(103)(0.25)3(0.75)7=120×0.0156×0.3121=0.2920P(X = 3) = \binom{10}{3} (0.25)^3 (0.75)^7 = 120 \times 0.0156 \times 0.3121 = 0.2920

Final Calculation:

Now, summing these probabilities:

P(X3)=0.0563+0.4843+0.3258+0.2920=1.1584P(X \leq 3) = 0.0563 + 0.4843 + 0.3258 + 0.2920 = 1.1584

Rounding this to four decimal places, the probability is approximately:

P(X3)1.1584P(X \leq 3) \approx 1.1584

So, the probability that at most 3 student

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Probability
Binomial Distribution

Formulas

P(X = k) = (n choose k) * p^k * (1 - p)^(n-k)
P(X <= 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)

Theorems

Binomial Theorem

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 10-12