Math Problem Statement
You are running a hot Internet company. Analysts predict that its earnings will grow at 30 % per year for the next 8 years. After that, as competition increases, earnings growth is expected to slow to 2 % per year and continue at that level forever. Your company has just announced earnings of $3 million. What is the present value of all future earnings if the interest rate is 10 %? (Assume all cash flows occur at the end of the year.)
Solution
To find the present value of all future earnings, we need to calculate the present value of two separate stages of earnings growth:
- Stage 1 (High Growth Period): For the first 8 years, earnings grow at 30% per year.
- Stage 2 (Stable Growth Period): After 8 years, earnings grow at a constant 2% per year indefinitely.
We will use the formula for the Present Value (PV) of a growing annuity for the first stage and the Present Value of a perpetuity with growth for the second stage. The steps are as follows:
Stage 1: High Growth Period (30% growth for 8 years)
The formula for the present value of a growing annuity is:
Where:
- is the earnings in year ,
- ,
- (30% growth),
- (10% discount rate).
The earnings for each year are calculated, then discounted back to the present using the formula above.
Stage 2: Stable Growth Period (2% growth forever after 8 years)
After 8 years, the earnings grow at a constant rate of 2% forever. For the perpetuity, we first calculate the earnings in year 9, which will be the starting point for the perpetuity:
Then, the present value of the perpetuity is:
Finally, we discount this perpetuity value back to the present (year 0), using the 10% discount rate:
Let me calculate both stages and the total present value.The present value of all future earnings for your company, given the growth assumptions and discount rate, is approximately $197.41 million.
Would you like further details or have any questions?
Here are 5 related questions to explore further:
- How would changes in the discount rate affect the present value?
- What if the high growth period lasted longer than 8 years?
- How would the present value change with a different stable growth rate (e.g., 3%) after 8 years?
- How is the perpetuity formula used in valuing long-term investments?
- What factors influence the selection of the discount rate in such analyses?
Tip: The perpetuity formula is a powerful tool for valuing stable cash flows that grow indefinitely at a constant rate, often used in financial models.
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Present Value
Growing Annuity
Perpetuity
Discounting Cash Flows
Formulas
PV_{growing annuity} = ∑(E_t / (1 + r)^t) for t = 1 to 8
E_t = E_0(1 + g)^t
PV_{perpetuity} = E_9 / (r - g)
PV_{total perpetuity} = PV_{perpetuity} / (1 + r)^8
Theorems
Present Value Theorem
Perpetuity Formula
Suitable Grade Level
University Level (Finance/Business)
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