Math Problem Statement

You are running a hot Internet company. Analysts predict that its earnings will grow at 30 % per year for the next 8 years. After​ that, as competition​ increases, earnings growth is expected to slow to 2 % per year and continue at that level forever. Your company has just announced earnings of ​$3 million. What is the present value of all future earnings if the interest rate is 10 %​? ​(Assume all cash flows occur at the end of the​ year.)

Solution

To find the present value of all future earnings, we need to calculate the present value of two separate stages of earnings growth:

  1. Stage 1 (High Growth Period): For the first 8 years, earnings grow at 30% per year.
  2. Stage 2 (Stable Growth Period): After 8 years, earnings grow at a constant 2% per year indefinitely.

We will use the formula for the Present Value (PV) of a growing annuity for the first stage and the Present Value of a perpetuity with growth for the second stage. The steps are as follows:

Stage 1: High Growth Period (30% growth for 8 years)

The formula for the present value of a growing annuity is:

PVgrowing annuity=t=18Et(1+r)tPV_{\text{growing annuity}} = \sum_{t=1}^{8} \frac{E_t}{(1+r)^t}

Where:

  • Et=E0(1+g)tE_t = E_0(1 + g)^t is the earnings in year tt,
  • E0=3million dollarsE_0 = 3 \, \text{million dollars},
  • g=0.30g = 0.30 (30% growth),
  • r=0.10r = 0.10 (10% discount rate).

The earnings for each year are calculated, then discounted back to the present using the formula above.

Stage 2: Stable Growth Period (2% growth forever after 8 years)

After 8 years, the earnings grow at a constant rate of 2% forever. For the perpetuity, we first calculate the earnings in year 9, which will be the starting point for the perpetuity:

E9=E8×(1+g)=E0×(1+0.30)8E_9 = E_8 \times (1 + g) = E_0 \times (1 + 0.30)^8

Then, the present value of the perpetuity is:

PVperpetuity=E9rg=E90.100.02PV_{\text{perpetuity}} = \frac{E_9}{r - g} = \frac{E_9}{0.10 - 0.02}

Finally, we discount this perpetuity value back to the present (year 0), using the 10% discount rate:

PVtotal=PVperpetuity(1+r)8PV_{\text{total}} = \frac{PV_{\text{perpetuity}}}{(1+r)^8}

Let me calculate both stages and the total present value.The present value of all future earnings for your company, given the growth assumptions and discount rate, is approximately $197.41 million.

Would you like further details or have any questions?

Here are 5 related questions to explore further:

  1. How would changes in the discount rate affect the present value?
  2. What if the high growth period lasted longer than 8 years?
  3. How would the present value change with a different stable growth rate (e.g., 3%) after 8 years?
  4. How is the perpetuity formula used in valuing long-term investments?
  5. What factors influence the selection of the discount rate in such analyses?

Tip: The perpetuity formula is a powerful tool for valuing stable cash flows that grow indefinitely at a constant rate, often used in financial models.

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Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Present Value
Growing Annuity
Perpetuity
Discounting Cash Flows

Formulas

PV_{growing annuity} = ∑(E_t / (1 + r)^t) for t = 1 to 8
E_t = E_0(1 + g)^t
PV_{perpetuity} = E_9 / (r - g)
PV_{total perpetuity} = PV_{perpetuity} / (1 + r)^8

Theorems

Present Value Theorem
Perpetuity Formula

Suitable Grade Level

University Level (Finance/Business)