Math Problem Statement
The City of Calgary reports that the number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge varies on weekdays. This variation can be modeled by a normal distribution with a mean of 107500 vehicles per day and a standard deviation of 8800 vehicles per day. You pick a weekday at random and set out a traffic counter on both the north-bound and south-bound lanes of the Crowchild Trail bridge. At the end of a 24-hour period, you download the data from the traffic counter and add the two figures to represent the total vehicle usage, .
(a) What is the probability that the total vehicle usage figure will be more than 120500 vehicles?
(b) What is the probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles?
(c) Find the 91 percentile. That is, 91% of the time, the total number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge in a 24-hour weekday period is at most how many?
vehicles
(d) 9% of the time, the total number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge in a 24-hour weekday period exceeds how many?
vehicles
Solution
To solve these questions, we will use the properties of a normal distribution, where the mean, , is 107500 vehicles and the standard deviation, , is 8800 vehicles.
Given:
- Mean,
- Standard Deviation,
(a) Probability that the total vehicle usage is more than 120500 vehicles
To find , we will calculate the -score for 120500.
The -score formula is: Substitute the values:
Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, we find the probability for .
So, the probability that the total vehicle usage will be more than 120500 vehicles is approximately 0.0694 or 6.94%.
(b) Probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles
For , we calculate the -scores for both 80000 and 101000.
-
For 80000:
-
For 101000:
Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator:
Therefore:
So, the probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles is approximately 0.2287 or 22.87%.
(c) 91st percentile for total vehicle usage
To find the 91st percentile, we need the -score that corresponds to the cumulative probability of 0.91.
From the standard normal distribution, .
Now, use the -score formula to find :
Thus, the 91st percentile is approximately 119292 vehicles.
(d) 9th percentile for total vehicle usage
To find the value that corresponds to the top 9% (91st percentile from below), we use the same approach as in part (c). Since we already calculated it, the answer is 119292 vehicles
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Math Problem Analysis
Mathematical Concepts
Normal Distribution
Probability
Z-Scores
Percentiles
Formulas
z = (X - μ) / σ
P(X > a) = 1 - P(Z ≤ z)
P(a < X < b) = P(Z < z_b) - P(Z < z_a)
X = μ + z * σ
Theorems
Properties of the Normal Distribution
Z-Score Table
Suitable Grade Level
Grades 11-12
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