Math Problem Statement

The City of Calgary reports that the number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge varies on weekdays. This variation can be modeled by a normal distribution with a mean of 107500 vehicles per day and a standard deviation of 8800 vehicles per day. You pick a weekday at random and set out a traffic counter on both the north-bound and south-bound lanes of the Crowchild Trail bridge. At the end of a 24-hour period, you download the data from the traffic counter and add the two figures to represent the total vehicle usage, .

(a) What is the probability that the total vehicle usage figure will be more than 120500 vehicles?

(b) What is the probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles?

(c) Find the 91 percentile. That is, 91% of the time, the total number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge in a 24-hour weekday period is at most how many?

vehicles

(d) 9% of the time, the total number of vehicles that use the Crowchild Trail bridge in a 24-hour weekday period exceeds how many?

vehicles

Solution

To solve these questions, we will use the properties of a normal distribution, where the mean, μ\mu, is 107500 vehicles and the standard deviation, σ\sigma, is 8800 vehicles.

Given:

  • Mean, μ=107500\mu = 107500
  • Standard Deviation, σ=8800\sigma = 8800

(a) Probability that the total vehicle usage is more than 120500 vehicles

To find P(X>120500)P(X > 120500), we will calculate the zz-score for 120500.

The zz-score formula is: z=Xμσz = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} Substitute the values: z=1205001075008800=1300088001.477z = \frac{120500 - 107500}{8800} = \frac{13000}{8800} \approx 1.477

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, we find the probability for z>1.477z > 1.477.

P(X>120500)=1P(Z1.477)10.9306=0.0694P(X > 120500) = 1 - P(Z \leq 1.477) \approx 1 - 0.9306 = 0.0694

So, the probability that the total vehicle usage will be more than 120500 vehicles is approximately 0.0694 or 6.94%.

(b) Probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles

For P(80000<X<101000)P(80000 < X < 101000), we calculate the zz-scores for both 80000 and 101000.

  1. For 80000: z=800001075008800=2750088003.125z = \frac{80000 - 107500}{8800} = \frac{-27500}{8800} \approx -3.125

  2. For 101000: z=1010001075008800=650088000.739z = \frac{101000 - 107500}{8800} = \frac{-6500}{8800} \approx -0.739

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator:

P(Z<3.125)0.0009P(Z < -3.125) \approx 0.0009 P(Z<0.739)0.2296P(Z < -0.739) \approx 0.2296

Therefore: P(80000<X<101000)=P(Z<0.739)P(Z<3.125)0.22960.0009=0.2287P(80000 < X < 101000) = P(Z < -0.739) - P(Z < -3.125) \approx 0.2296 - 0.0009 = 0.2287

So, the probability that the total vehicle usage will be between 80000 and 101000 vehicles is approximately 0.2287 or 22.87%.

(c) 91st percentile for total vehicle usage

To find the 91st percentile, we need the zz-score that corresponds to the cumulative probability of 0.91.

From the standard normal distribution, z0.911.34z_{0.91} \approx 1.34.

Now, use the zz-score formula to find XX: X=μ+zσ=107500+1.348800107500+11792=119292X = \mu + z \cdot \sigma = 107500 + 1.34 \cdot 8800 \approx 107500 + 11792 = 119292

Thus, the 91st percentile is approximately 119292 vehicles.

(d) 9th percentile for total vehicle usage

To find the value that corresponds to the top 9% (91st percentile from below), we use the same approach as in part (c). Since we already calculated it, the answer is 119292 vehicles

Ask a new question for Free

By Image

Drop file here or Click Here to upload

Math Problem Analysis

Mathematical Concepts

Normal Distribution
Probability
Z-Scores
Percentiles

Formulas

z = (X - μ) / σ
P(X > a) = 1 - P(Z ≤ z)
P(a < X < b) = P(Z < z_b) - P(Z < z_a)
X = μ + z * σ

Theorems

Properties of the Normal Distribution
Z-Score Table

Suitable Grade Level

Grades 11-12